Are Israel and Hezbollah headed toward a ceasefire?

JERUSALEM – The prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is generating intense discussions across diplomatic, political, and military channels.

Reports suggest significant progress has been made in the negotiations, spearheaded by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein. However, the situation is fraught with challenges, as various actors within the continuing drama express conflicting priorities.

Ceasefire negotiations

Recent reports indicate Israel has agreed in principle to a U.S.-mediated ceasefire proposal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened high-level consultations with defense and political leaders to evaluate the terms on Sunday night. Preliminary approval for the agreement has reportedly been conveyed to Lebanese officials via Hochstein, though several key issues remain unresolved​.

US OFFICIAL: ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT REACHED

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire framework to end the conflict with Hezbollah, according to a senior U.S. official.

While the deal is not yet announced, it includes a 60-day transition period, Israeli… pic.twitter.com/3bY5Qm7JCe

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) November 25, 2024

The proposal seeks to establish a cessation of hostilities – for at least 60 days – while addressing concerns from both sides. Lebanese authorities have emphasized the need for a swift withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon.

Simultaneously, Israel aims to ensure Hezbollah is significantly weakened and unable to resume its military activities​, particularly the indiscriminate firing of rockets and launching of drones over the border. On Sunday alone, Hezbollah fired at least 350 projectiles into Israeli territory, some of them setting off incoming missile alerts across large swaths of the heavily-populated center of the country.

Domestic political reactions in Israel

The ceasefire discussions have triggered sharp criticism within Israel’s political landscape. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called the potential agreement a “big mistake,” arguing that it represents “an historic missed opportunity to decisively defeat Hezbollah.”

He insists that Israel should continue its military campaign until Hezbollah’s operational capacity is entirely neutralized​. While there is certainly war fatigue in Israel, there are still tens of thousands of residents of the country’s north who cannot return to their homes – and previous lives – for fear of Hezbollah attacks.

הסכם עם לבנון הוא טעות גדולה. החמצה היסטורית של הזדמנות למגר את החיזבאללה. אני מבין את כל האילוצים והנימוקים, ועדיין מדובר בטעות חמורה. צריך להקשיב למפקדים הלוחמים בשטח, להקשיב לראשי הרשויות. דווקא כעת, כשחיזבאללה מוכה ומשתוקק להפסקת אש, אסור לעצור.

כפי שהזהרתי בעבר בעזה אני…

— איתמר בן גביר (@itamarbengvir) November 25, 2024

This perspective highlights the broader debate within Israel over balancing military objectives with humanitarian and diplomatic considerations. Critics of the ceasefire argue that halting the offensive now could leave Hezbollah intact and embolden the group in future conflicts – which will almost inevitably come – and likely sooner than the 17 years it took since the previous round.

They argue a ceasefire will allow the Iranian-backed terrorist proxy to resupply and also reorganize after a brutal few weeks in which the entirety of its senior leadership, including long-standing general secretary Hassan Nasrallah were eliminated in IDF strikes. Supporters of the ceasefire, meanwhile, point to the need to prevent further loss of life and avoid prolonged warfare, because of the very fatigue which has set in.

The role of the United States

The U.S. has played a central role in mediating the potential ceasefire. Hochstein has held extensive talks with Israeli and Lebanese officials, offering American guarantees to facilitate an agreement. These guarantees likely include mechanisms to monitor compliance and address violations by either side​.

However, it could be these upon which there are significant sticking points. Israel and Israelis have gotten to a point where international agreements regarding peacekeeping forces – especially the United Nations International Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL – have shown themselves to be almost completely useless. Worse, some of those forces supposed to keep the sides apart have, in fact, facilitated Hezbollah’s offensive actions.

The timing of the U.S. push for a ceasefire appears strategic, with Washington keen to attempt to stabilize the region and shift focus to broader geopolitical priorities, including the Ukraine-Russia arena. However, some analysts suggest that American pressure could exacerbate tensions within Israel’s political system, particularly if key leaders perceive the agreement as compromising Israel’s security interests, which given the Biden administration’s dislike of Netanyahu and his government might be viewed as a hoped-for by-product.

Challenges and contradictions

Despite progress in negotiations, significant hurdles remain. Lebanese sources have described a dual reality where talks are advancing on one hand but face substantial obstacles on the other. Among the primary challenges is the lingering distrust between the parties. Lebanese President Najib Mikati has condemned recent Israeli strikes on Lebanese army positions, framing them as a rejection of dialogue efforts​

Another contentious issue involves the terms of Hezbollah’s demilitarization and whether any ceasefire can effectively enforce restrictions on its activities.

For Israel, ensuring that Hezbollah cannot rebuild its arsenal or launch future attacks is a non-negotiable priority. For Lebanon, maintaining sovereignty and avoiding a political backlash from Hezbollah supporters are equally critical concerns.

Several Lebanese X users took to the platform to effectively beg Israel to keep fighting, arguing Hezbollah would not keep up its end of the bargain and the fact there’d almost inevitably be further hostilities sometime in the near future.

Ceasefire deal – what it means

The Lebanese wrong assumption:

Living in permanent trauma, the Lebanese journalists, analysts, and citizens have been saying all day that Israel/USA “sold Lebanon” out to Iran in a deal. That’s why there will be a ceasefire.… pic.twitter.com/XDggnyS5rL

— LebaneseGov (@joumana_gebara_) November 24, 2024

Potential outcomes

If a ceasefire is finalized, it could pave the way for broader de-escalation in the region. However, the agreement’s success would depend on robust enforcement mechanisms and sustained international engagement. Failure to address underlying grievances and power dynamics could lead to a temporary lull in violence, followed by renewed conflict.

The discussions also have significant implications for regional stability. A ceasefire would alleviate humanitarian crises in Lebanon and Israel’s northern communities, but it could also shift focus to the unresolved tensions in Gaza and Judea and Samaria, where hostilities continue. Iran’s nefarious influence in the region – which would obviously be out of the purview of any ceasefire agreement.

The context of conflict

Hostilities along the Israeli-Lebanese border have escalated sharply since Oct. 8, 2023, when entirely unprovoked, Hezbollah joined the conflict in support of Hamas, which had launched its murderous assault of southern Israeli communities a day earlier. The violence has reportedly led to thousands of casualties in Lebanon, widespread displacement, and significant destruction, particularly in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s suburbs – which are Hezbollah strongholds.

The IDF has lost more than 70 soldiers since it began its ground incursion nearly two months ago. In addition, more than 40 civilians have lost their lives in Hezbollah missile attacks, including a group of 12 Druze children in one fatal incident toward the end of July.

The Israeli Defense Forces have intensified their operations in Lebanon to neutralize Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, including rocket launch sites. Hezbollah, in turn, has launched sustained rocket fire into northern Israel, causing casualties and damage​. Amid this backdrop, diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire have gained momentum.

The possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah represents a critical juncture in the ongoing conflict. While there is cautious optimism, the path to peace remains fraught with challenges. Balancing the immediate need to end hostilities with long-term security and political considerations will be central to determining whether the ceasefire can achieve lasting stability.

Both Israel and Lebanon face difficult decisions in the coming days. For Israel, the challenge lies in convincing domestic audiences that the agreement does not compromise national security. For Lebanon, navigating Hezbollah’s influence and public sentiment will be equally complex. The role of external actors, particularly the United States, will be pivotal in bridging these divides and ensuring that the ceasefire has a meaningful and durable impact.