With its ‘axis of resistance’ lying in tatters, will Iran push for nuclear bomb?

JERUSALEM – The fallout from the dramatic events over the last 48 hours or so in Syria continued Monday, as the future shape of the entire Middle East is still uncertain and lies hugely in the balance.

With so many questions on everyone’s minds, one of the most pressing is whether Iran will now go all-out, release the shackles, and try to develop a nuclear bomb.

Alarm bells are already beginning to ring loudly among some in the international community. Indeed, the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, the autonomous nuclear watchdog, which reports to the United Nations General Assembly and also U.N. Security Council, recently warned Iran is poised to “dramatically” increase its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium. Already noted as long in June, this was a process it was already undertaking.

However, due to the current situation in Syria and the break-up of its lengthy land bridge, which connected the Mediterranean Sea to Tehran, and afforded it access to an unparalleled weapons delivery highway – and has left it somewhat isolated – there are fears it will accelerate its drive for the bomb.

IAEA chief: Iran poised to ‘dramatically’ increase stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium https://t.co/CaybcoEy3b

— The Times of Israel (@TimesofIsrael) December 6, 2024

One element of the increased stockpile of the weapons-grade uranium, which many missed, but the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, or FDD, did not, is how it is tied to the Islamic Republic’s space program.

Indeed, the FDD noted last week how “Iran claimed its space program successfully launched its heaviest payload yet into space on Dec. 6, including a device capable of repositioning other satellites. The launch utilized the domestically produced, two-stage, liquid-fueled Simorgh rocket carrying the payload into orbit with a high point of 255 miles above Earth.”

The importance of this, which a U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence also noted with alarm, “would shorten the timeline to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) because of the shared technologies within space launch and ballistic missile capabilities.”

If Assad’s fall was a shock to Western intelligence officials – including Israel and U.S. – it must also have come as a surprise to his Iranian backers. Indeed, on Dec. 1, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was filmed having a fast-food dinner in Damascus, having just met with the now-deposed Syrian leader. He was also due to speak at the Doha Forum in Qatar on Sunday, but left early because of the pace of events in Syria.

The dismantling of the Assad regime also spells – for now at least – the end of a more than 20-year Iranian foreign policy goal of being able to join up Tehran-backed proxy groups – with the twin goal of annihilating the State of Israel, and furthering its hegemonic aims in the Mideast.

Iran no longer encircles Israel.

There is no Shiite crescent.

The fall of the Assad regime accompanies the elimination of Iran’s air defences & the degradation of #Hezbollah.

Now is the time for Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities without worry for blowback.

— Barak Seener (@BarakSeener) December 8, 2024

There are two other fairly obvious reasons for a potential dash for the bomb. As the failed Biden administration runs on the final fumes of its own incompetence, the Trump 2.0 team – no friend of the mullahs in Tehran – is waiting in the wings for only another 40 days or so.

Trump clearly has unfinished business with Iran, the highly credible reports of the Islamic Republic’s attempts – or wishes at best – to suborn his assassination not being the least of them. Trump could point – with the backing of significant evidence – that his maximum pressure campaign was reaping dividends, in the way the Iranian economy was struggling and therefore left Tehran with less room to maneuver with regard to its destabilizing influence in the region. One can draw a direct causal link from the Biden-Harris administration releasing billions of dollars of cash, and the precipitous uptick in Iran’s meddling.

The other pressing issue – which is not directly related to Trump’s return to office, but could be – is the knowledge – both in Iran and outside – that Israel’s late-October attack did indeed leave it almost completely vulnerable to attack, up to and including its nuclear sites.

Trump alluded to it in his Truth Social post, highlighting how Israel’s lengthy and unprecedented strike has left Iran “vulnerable.” They know it. Everyone else knows it too. And in about five weeks, the entire tenor of U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic will change dramatically.