Analysts say China is gaslighting the West while Taiwan sounds alarm on incursions

Tensions between China and Taiwan have reached a boiling point, and analysts are warning the U.S. won’t defeat China if the communists go ahead with plans to invade the island nation.

According to Brandon Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, former congressional staffer, and geopolitical analyst, China is preparing to seize control of Taiwan, and far sooner than 2027.

“For China, conquering Taiwan not only gives them economic and geopolitical advantages over their rivals, but it allows for the Chinese Communist Party under President-for-life Xi Jinping to finally declare that the dangers posed to them by Taiwan’s ‘splittism’ have been put to bed. It would be a clear announcement to the world that, indeed, a new world order had been birthed – a world order in which the CCP stood as the dominant power in the economically dynamic Indo-Pacific,” Weichert wrote in an op-ed.

Weichert noted this would allow China to claim legitimacy at home and internationally, while dealing a blow to the U.S., which has invested diplomatic and financial capital into Taiwan.

“The goal for China would be to keep the U.S. military just over the horizon long enough for the Chinese to achieve their goal: overthrowing the government of Taiwan and absorbing it into their budding co-prosperity sphere. And with China’s growing A2/AD capabilities, their counter space assets and their cyberwarfare capacities, Beijing just might be able to achieve their goal. The balance of power in the Indo-Pacific has shifted away from the United States and toward China in the last decade. Should Beijing opt to hit Taiwan now with a blockade, they will be able to do so. China will likely be victorious,” Weichert said.

According to TaiwanPlus News, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo said China’s increased military activity around Taiwan makes it harder to spot potential acts of war.

Koo said Taiwan needs to move closer to a “war footing,” and test its capacity to respond to any sudden moves by China towards conflict. During a news conference Wednesday, Koo said China’s People’s Liberation Army has staged over 2,000 incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone in 2024 alone.

“The scale of activity is getting larger and larger, and so it is harder to discern when they might be shifting from training to a large exercise, and from an exercise to war,” Koo said.

Wu Qian, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense, when asked about Taiwan claiming China is not yet capable of waging a war, said the People’s Liberation Army is capable of “foiling any resistance,” and called the claims “ridiculous and delusional.”

“China’s reunification is an overwhelming trend of history that cannot be stopped by anyone or any force. The PLA has reliable means to be where we need to fight, and is capable of foiling any resistance by military elements of the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces. We will firmly defend China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Wu said.

U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., said China is attempting to gaslight the world on its aggression in the South China Sea.

In an op-ed, Krishnamoorthi said the Chinese Communist Party are blatantly encroaching within the Philippines’ internationally recognized exclusive zone, blocking Philippine ships, then claiming the Philippines were “intruding” into sovereign Chinese waters. Footage captured from Philippine ships, however, show the Chinese coast guard were the aggressors – to the point the ship’s engine failed.

“Unfortunately, the CCP’s aggression in the South China Sea encapsulates a broader worldview, one in which might makes right and Beijing does as it pleases, including ramming ships belonging to its smaller neighbors that dare to challenge its sweeping – and illegal – sovereignty claims,” Krishnamoorthi said.

Krishnamoorti further noted if anyone calls out China for its aggressive behavior, it simply gaslights them. For instance, despite footage showing Chinese coast guard ships damaging Philippine vessels, China claimed the Philippines had deliberately attacked and damaged Chinese ships.

“This gaslighting and disregard for international law is nothing new. After an international court ruled in 2016 that the CCP’s so-called ‘nine-dash line’ sovereignty claims over almost the entire South China Sea had ‘no legal basis,’ Beijing infamously declared the court’s ruling to be ‘null and void’ and amount to ‘nothing more than a piece of paper,'” Krishnamoorthi said.

During an interview with Bloomberg, Krishnamoorthi said everything depends on whether China is prepared to lower its aggression economically, technologically, militarily, and with regards to the U.S. national security.

“If they continue to ratchet up tensions, such as in the South China Sea, where they’re ramming Philippine ships, where they dump electric vehicles for instance, around the world in a bid to undercut their competition and destroy their competition – then we’re gonna, you know, have to protect our interests, at the same time that we work with our friends, partners and allies,” Krishnamoorthi said.

If the CCP starts playing by the rules of international trade, the U.S. and our partners will lower our counter measures.

But until they do, we will protect our national security, our economy, and our interests.

It’s as simple as that. pic.twitter.com/TOlVSbmp7h

— Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (@CongressmanRaja) September 20, 2024

The dispute between China and the Philippines is centered around the Spratly Islands – composed of islands, islets, cays, and more than 100 reefs, which lie off the coasts of the Philippines, Malaysia, and southern Vietnam.

Spokesperson Wu said in a news conference last week, this area is “China’s inherent territory” and added the U.S. is not a party of concern in regards to the conflict in the South China Sea.

“The Chinese side takes rights-protection and law-enforcement operations in relevant areas. They are completely legitimate, lawful and professional. The U.S. is not a party concerned in the South China Sea issue, and is in no position to interfere with maritime disputes between China and the Philippines, even less to undermine China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests on the pretext of bilateral treaties,” Wu said.

Wu then blamed the current escalation on the Philippines, stating it has provoked China, has taken reckless actions, and accused the U.S. of provoking confrontation – while conveniently leaving out China’s belligerent actions towards Philippine vessels.

“The current escalation in the South China Sea situation is caused by the Philippines who repeatedly made provocations and took reckless actions. The U.S., on the other hand, has continued to fan the flame and provoke confrontation. It needs to be emphasized that the Chinese side will take firm and effective countermeasures against anyone who stirs up troubles in the South China Sea or infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests,” Wu said.