Betting Market Shows Trump Leading Harris In 6 Swing States

Former President Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the White House race across six key swing states, one betting market announced on Wednesday, less than three weeks out from Election Day.

Polymarket showed Trump leading Harris 68%-32% in Arizona, where 11 electoral votes are at stake; 64%-36% in Georgia, where 16 electoral votes are at stake; and 59%-41% in Pennsylvania, where 19 electoral votes are at stake.

The site also showed Trump above Harris 55%-45% in Michigan, where 15 electoral votes are at stake; 54%-46% in Wisconsin, where 10 electoral votes are at stake; and 51%-49% in Nevada, where six electoral votes are at stake.

Trump now has the lead in every swing state. pic.twitter.com/ie7NWK4zYn

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 16, 2024

Harris was performing better than Trump in some of the states, including Wisconsin and Nevada, just days ago. There is still time for the odds to shift back and forth as the candidates and their allies conduct a final campaign blitz.

Polymarket’s overall forecast on Wednesday showed that Trump was ahead of Harris 58.5%-41.3%. Trump’s advantage has grown since the beginning of October, when the betting market showed him and Harris virtually tied.

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Harris, who became the Democrats’ presidential nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race over the summer, has begun to ramp up her interview schedule after largely ducking the press early in her campaign.

Despite relatively friendly interviews with ABC’s “The View,” late-night host Stephen Colbert on CBS, and others, Harris has struggled to answer how she differs from Biden and prove that she does not need to lean on a teleprompter.

Several other betting markets also show Trump ahead of Harris in the 2024 White House race. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, which includes Polymarket and some competitors, shows Trump leading Harris 57.7%-41.3%.

Although Trump is surging ahead in betting markets, polls still indicate a close race between him and Harris. RCP’s average for national polls show Harris ahead 49.2%-47.5% and Trump leading 48.3%-47.6% in battleground states.

Polymarket showed Harris as favored to win the popular vote, with a 64%-36% advantage over Trump. It also showed a 79% chance of Republicans taking over the Senate and 55% odds of the Democrats winning control of the House.

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, the chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Office, said on Wednesday the overall market — in which multiple stock indices rose to record highs this week — anticipates Trump to be victorious.

“In the last 12 days, the market and the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is going to win,” he told Bloomberg. “You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in DJT, his social media company.”