‘Big deal’: Pollster reveals two key factors keeping the Trump-Harris race neck and neck
'That's why this race is closer than it was in 2020'
Pollster Chris Wilson said Monday the 2024 presidential race is close due to former President Donald Trump’s strong economic polling and increased support among Hispanic voters.
Trump holds a 12-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on economic issues, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll. Wilson, on Fox Business, said voters’ belief they would fare better economically under Trump, along with Hispanics shifting toward him, is keeping him competitive against Harris, compared to his 2020 polling against President Joe Biden.
WATCH:
‘Big Deal’: Pollster Says Economy And ‘Complete Shift Of Hispanics’ Keeping Trump-Harris Race Tight pic.twitter.com/SVYwXdFDwh
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 5, 2024
“I would also point out, from an overall polling perspective, that at this point in 2020, Biden and Harris had an eight-point lead over Trump and Pence,” Wilson said. “So the fact that it’s a dead heat right now, I think speaks well for where Donald Trump is positioned, but the thing that really stood out for me on this poll … economic concerns … Trump is favored by voters on this issue … Only 25% of people in the poll said they expect to be better off financially if Harris wins compared to 45% for Trump. That is a big deal and it matters. And nearly half of voters say President Trump’s policies will make them financially better off.”
Wilson was referencing a CBS News poll published on Sunday, which also found that 44% of voters believe they would be “financially worse off” if Harris is victorious.
Harris gained sufficient delegates on Friday to secure the Democratic Party’s nomination for President during a virtual roll call process orchestrated by the Democratic National Committee, with almost no primary voter approval. Trump is beating Harris by .8% nationally, according to the RealClearPolling average.
“The one thing that really stood out to me on the poll … is where this race is right now with Hispanics. And Kamala Harris has the lead, but it’s only a seven-point lead right now,” he added. “And if you think about that, it’s 51 for Harris, 44 for Trump. Now, let’s look at how Democrats have won Hispanics in the past. Biden won them by 33 … Clinton won them by 38 … Obama won them by 44 … We are looking at a complete shift of Hispanics in terms of their support for President Trump.”
Over 40% of Latino voters trust Trump on handling immigration issues while just 38% said the same for Biden, according to a late June poll in key swing states. Over 70% of Latino respondents described themselves as either “very” or “somewhat” concerned with Democrats’ “broken promises” on immigration and 65% expressed concern over Democrats’ failure to deliver a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
“And I think that is really the story coming out of this and why you look at states like Nevada and Arizona that are closer and New Mexico … that’s making its way into a swing state because of the policies that Donald Trump is taking on the border that are appealing to Hispanics. And that’s why this race is closer than it was in 2020,” Wilson concluded.
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