Blue States Benefited From 2020 Census Mistakes As Red States Suffered Losses

Errors in the 2020 census benefited Democrats and hurt Republicans, and these inaccuracies could make a difference on Election Day.

In 2022, a report from the U.S. Census Bureau revealed that the 2020 census incorrectly counted the American population in at least 14 states, leading some states to lose congressional representation. The report was highlighted at the time by Heritage Foundation scholar Hans von Spakovsky, who told The Daily Wire that the errors could benefit Democrats in November.

“The result of the Census errors in Florida and Texas, two red states, should have three more electoral seats that they never got,” von Spakovsky wrote in an email. “Whereas three blue states, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Colorado, have three congressional seats – and thus three electoral votes – they should not have. In a razor thin election, this could make the difference in victory.”

Another Heritage scholar, Stephen Moore, who is also an author and founder of the Club For Growth, brought the report back into the light over the weekend, noting, “A majority of the overcounted states were blue, while a majority of the undercounted states were red.”

The 2020 Census robbed Red states of electoral seats.

A majority of the overcounted states were blue, while a majority of the undercounted states were red.

According to a @Heritage analysis, the result of these errors shorted red states three seats:https://t.co/QhZcUQUz7b pic.twitter.com/rSVIzMeqUm

— Stephen Moore (@StephenMoore) September 7, 2024

Moore included a chart showing that overcounted states included Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Utah. The error size in New York resulted in a population miscount of +695,422. Minnesota and Rhode Island, whose overcounting resulted in them keeping electoral votes they should have lost, overcounted their populations by 216,971 and 55,457, respectively.

Though Rhode Island overcounted by a smaller amount than the other states (it was still a 5% increase in population, however), it managed to hold onto a congressional seat that it should have lost, the Associated Press reported in 2022.

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If Rhode Island had counted 19,000 fewer residents – as it should have – it would have lost one of its two congressional seats. Had that happened, the AP reported, that congressional seat would have gone to New York.

As for Florida, it undercounted residents by 750,600. It only needed about 171,500 more residents to gain an extra seat. Texas, too, was undercounted by about 560,000 residents when it only needed 189,000 to gain another congressional seat.

In his analysis of the Census Bureau report, von Spakovsky noted:

Under the 2020 Census enumeration released on April 26, 2021, the total apportionment population of the United States was reported as 331,108,434. After application of the “method of equal proportion,” five states each gained one new congressional seat: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. Texas gained two new seats. Due to population decreases, seven states each lost one congressional seat: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

These errors can’t be corrected until the 2030 census, which could bring additional, similar errors.