Census Battle: How This Lawsuit Could Change Political Power in Congress

A federal lawsuit could be decided in early 2026 to require the Census Bureau to only count people rather than use statistical sampling—a move that could determine who controls Congress. 

The 2020 Census overcounted the population of several Democrat-leaning states and undercounted the population of several Republican-leaning states.

While the agency admitted this was an error, plaintiffs in the case of University of South Florida College Republicans et al. v. Lutnick allege that its method of sampling led to the inaccuracies in the Census—and, ultimately, to the wrong apportionment of seats in Congress.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was named as the defendant in the case, as the Census Bureau is part of his agency. 

America First Legal is representing the plaintiffs in the case, and Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla. has also intervened as a plaintiff. 

“When the federal government manipulates census data, it manipulates political power,” said Gene Hamilton, president of America First Legal, in a public statement. “This case is about stopping illegal methods that undermine equal representation and ensuring the next Census complies with the Constitution.”

President Donald Trump and other Republicans have cited the Census inaccuracies to make the case for mid-decade redistricting. Trump said on Truth Social in November: “Democrats are trying to steal our seats everywhere, and we’re not going to let this happen!”

His post continued, “This all began with the Rigged Census. We must keep the Majority at all costs. Republicans must fight back!”

In 2024, the Census Bureau released the 2020 Census Post-Enumeration Survey, showing population overcounts in Democrat-leaning states such as New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Delaware, Minnesota, while finding undercounts in Republican-leaning states such as Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

Notably, the population for the blue state of Illinois was undercounted, while the red states of Utah and Ohio were overcounted. 

A press release by the plaintiffs called this a “landmark case” and said the matter would be decided in early 2026 in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida. 

The plaintiffs on Dec. 23 also asked for summary judgement in the case—for the court to rule in their favor without a trial.

They contend that the 2020 Census undercounted Florida’s state population by 3.8 percent, added fictitious persons to the count, and diluted lawful representation. 

Meanwhile, the intervenor defendants have asked for the case to be dismissed. 

In their Christmas Eve motion to dismiss the lawsuit, lawyers for the intervenor defendants argued: “Plaintiffs fail to allege facts supporting their standing to sue, because their factual allegations combined with judicially noticeable facts leave them without an injury-in-fact that is redressable by relief against the Census Bureau.” 

The Alliance of Retired Americans and college students backed by the National Redistricting Foundation have intervened as defendants in the case, represented by the Elias Law Group, run by Democrat election lawyer Marc Elias.

Arguing on behalf of the Commerce Department, attorneys from the Justice Department contend that the plaintiffs lack standing and have failed to demonstrate an injury.

Donalds has argued that he can intervene in the case because he relies on Census data to make decisions for constituents. 

Neither the Census Bureau nor the Commerce Department responded to inquiries about this story. 

The Elias Group did not respond to inquiries about the story, nor did the Alliance for Retired Persons. 

Donalds’s office did not immediately respond. 

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