Could New York Elect a Republican Governor After Electing Socialist Mayor in NYC?

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is making a big political bet after a decade in Congress—that she can become the first Republican Governor of New York in 20 years.

“[Gov.] Kathy Hochul has a record and has led single-party Democrat rule, making it the most unaffordable state in the nation,” Stefanik, an upstate New Yorker, says in an early attack ad released Friday against the state’s incumbent Democrat governor. “We have the highest taxes, the highest energy prices, the highest utility prices, highest grocery prices and rent that continues to skyrocket.”

But, in the Empire State dominated politically by Democrats, does Stefanik’s gubernatorial bid have a chance?

Stefanik’s Path to Victory

“I do think a Republican can win in New York,” New York-based Republican strategist Chapin Fay told The Daily Signal. “The path to victory runs squarely through New York City. There are not enough Republican votes on Long Island and upstate to ignore New York City.”

Chapin explained that the “old conventional wisdom” is that a Republican needs 30% of the vote in New York City to win the gubernatorial race.

In 2022, however, Republican New York gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin, now EPA commissioner under President Donald Trump, won almost exactly 30% of the New York City vote in 2022 and still lost—not to mention that New York City just elected Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed socialist, to be the city’s next mayor.

Nevertheless, a recent poll suggests Stefanik can mount a real challenge to Hochul in 2026 with 46% of voters favoring Hochul, compared to 43% for Stefanik, which is within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error.

Fay’s suggestion for Republicans? Target voters who supported former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the recent mayoral election. 

“I would be looking at the Democrats who voted for Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral election, I would be hyper focused on that group of people,” Fay said. Cuomo won 41.6% of the vote in New York City, with Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa winning 7.1%

John McLaughlin is a New York-based veteran of Republican political strategy and polling. He has done polling for a number of New York campaigns, as well as for President Donald Trump’s presidential bids.

While he would favor Bruce Blakeman—whom he just helped re-elect as Nassau County Executive—over Stefanik as a Republican gubernatorial candidate, he says it is entirely in the cards that a Republican could win the state.

“When Republicans win in New York, it’s when the Democrats have failed, and they have clearly failed egregiously, so that a Republican can win. But it’s still a very tough race,” McLaughlin said. “Even when Hochul might have a 25 to 30% unfavorable rating or disapproval among Democrats, it’s still a very tough race.”

McLaughlin explains that Republicans in New York simply cannot get around having to get Democrat votes.

“You not only need to win the independents by 60%—which is tough with independent women—you have to get 22 to 25% of the Democrats to win, plus you have to get 35% in New York City,” McLaughlin said. 

“Hochul is vulnerable because there’s a lot of Democrat rejection of her and she may get a primary from the progressives,” Blakeman said. Hochul already has a primary challenger in Democrat Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado.

But for Republicans to be successful, they need to demonstrate that “they can win the independents and attract enough Democrats to win.”

What Issues Will Define the Race?

Fay says the major issues in the gubernatorial election will be the same issues that led to Zohran Mamdani winning the mayoral race in New York City.

“I think affordability is going to be one of the top concerns,” Fay said. “You see Mamdani and Governor Hochul already… getting into scraps over tax increases, free buses. All the things that Mamdani promised, he actually needs Albany’s involvement and approval on all this stuff.”

“I think the good news is Republicans and conservatives have good arguments to make and have the right ideas on affordability,” Fay added. “The Trump agenda, and whether that’s succeeding or not, is going to be a big issue. If the economy is humming and he’s got more peace deals and the tariffs are working, that all [goes]to the Republican candidates benefit. That being said, in New York… there’s no better way to organize and inspire Democrats to go vote than Donald Trump.”

In McLaughlin’s view, Mamdani is a gift to Republican in counties outside of the Big Apple. He cited decisive re-election victories for Blakeman, Rockland County Executive Ed Day, and Orange County Executive Steve Neuhaus.

“Most of their voters don’t like Zohran Mamdani, what he stands for. So that’s obvious to a lot of Republicans down nationally, but we did it, and we did it very successfully,” he said.

Stefanik has already hit the Mamdani theme, targeting Hochul in her latest ad, which prominently features Hochul, who endorsed Mamdani’s bid for mayor, joining him at a campaign event.

McLaughlin did warn, however, of the danger of being limited in voter pickup by having a staunchly conservative policy positions on record.

“What froze us four years ago with Lee Zeldin, when he got hit with his pro life votes—the majority of voters in New York state are pro choice—and we just got frozen at 47%. We couldn’t pick up the Democrats we needed to win.”

What’s clear is that Republicans will have to find a compelling message for disillusioned Democrats.

“The way you get voters to vote for you is by communicating shared values,” Fay said. “The Republican needs to not come in hot and heavy, talking about one party rule and how evil Democrats are causing your lives to be terrible, because most of the people who live here, they are Democrats.”

He added, “The way to talk about it is, here’s what I believe, here’s why I think this will be helpful to your life, and here’s why what Governor Hochul is doing is being unhelpful to your life. And leave it to others to label you and call it whatever, but just communicate directly to the voters through media.”

Hochul Prepares for a Fight

Hochul campaign spokesperson Sarafina Chitika told The Daily Signal in response to Stefanik’s ad attacking the governor, “You don’t usually see campaigns redo their own launch videos, but Elise Stefanik’s is already full of surprises – a website in Latin, endorsements rolled out and then rolled back, and a launch day so pitiful she inspired a primary challenger before dinnertime.”

Chitika made sure to tie Stefanik to Trump as the scathing statement continued, adding, “Unfortunately for her, no amount of editing can erase what she’s already done to screw over New Yorkers: jacking up their energy bills, ripping away their health care, and selling them out to Donald Trump, though we doubt those will make it into launch video number three.”

Stefanik’s campaign did not immediately provide comment.

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