Democrats hoped population growth would turn North Carolina blue, but here's how Trump is crushing those hopes
Democrats believed that population growth in high-density areas of North Carolina would help them turn the red tide, but a separate trend might crush those hopes completely. The Cook Political Report changed North Carolina from a right-leaning to a toss-up state based on demographic trends, but an analysis by NBC poll analyst Steve Kornacki says former President Donald Trump is also gaining in Republican-leaning parts of the state. 'Republicans have made gains. They sort of almost canceled each other out there.' Kornacki points out that Democrats have been able to shave down Trump's advantage in the state from a gap of about 175k votes in the 2016 election down to only 75k votes in the 2020 election against Biden. This has led many Democrats to believe that Vice President Kamala Harris might be able to turn the state blue. "One thing we see is Democratic support getting increasingly concentrated geographically into metropolitan areas, suburbs with high concentrations of college diplomas," he explained. However, despite the city and metro parts of the state becoming more Democratic, Kornacki says that Trump has been able to make up the difference by pushing the red parts of the state farther to the right. In one example cited in the analysis, Trump was able to win Hamilton County with a margin of 25 points in 2020 after former President Barack Obama lost the same county by only eight points in 2016. While the county is small in terms of population, it could be a stand-in for all the other Republican-leaning parts of the state, which are smaller in population but greater in total number, Kornacki says. "Smaller counties, more diffuse geographically, Republicans have made gains. They sort of almost canceled each other out there," he said. Kornacki went on to say that if Democrats are able to turn out the blue vote in the more populous regions, they might have a chance to win the state and switch 11 electoral votes from the red column to the blue column. Here's the news video from MSNBC of Kornacki's analysis on YouTube. Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!
Democrats believed that population growth in high-density areas of North Carolina would help them turn the red tide, but a separate trend might crush those hopes completely.
The Cook Political Report changed North Carolina from a right-leaning to a toss-up state based on demographic trends, but an analysis by NBC poll analyst Steve Kornacki says former President Donald Trump is also gaining in Republican-leaning parts of the state.
'Republicans have made gains. They sort of almost canceled each other out there.'
Kornacki points out that Democrats have been able to shave down Trump's advantage in the state from a gap of about 175k votes in the 2016 election down to only 75k votes in the 2020 election against Biden. This has led many Democrats to believe that Vice President Kamala Harris might be able to turn the state blue.
"One thing we see is Democratic support getting increasingly concentrated geographically into metropolitan areas, suburbs with high concentrations of college diplomas," he explained.
However, despite the city and metro parts of the state becoming more Democratic, Kornacki says that Trump has been able to make up the difference by pushing the red parts of the state farther to the right.
In one example cited in the analysis, Trump was able to win Hamilton County with a margin of 25 points in 2020 after former President Barack Obama lost the same county by only eight points in 2016.
While the county is small in terms of population, it could be a stand-in for all the other Republican-leaning parts of the state, which are smaller in population but greater in total number, Kornacki says.
"Smaller counties, more diffuse geographically, Republicans have made gains. They sort of almost canceled each other out there," he said.
Kornacki went on to say that if Democrats are able to turn out the blue vote in the more populous regions, they might have a chance to win the state and switch 11 electoral votes from the red column to the blue column.
Here's the news video from MSNBC of Kornacki's analysis on YouTube.
Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!
Originally Published at Daily Wire, World Net Daily, or The Blaze
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