Here He Comes: Poll Shows Trump Now Leading In New Hampshire

In another shot in the arm for the Trump campaign, a new poll shows former President Donald Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in seven of the last presidential elections, albeit closely. The sole exception came in 2000 when the GOP’s George W. Bush narrowly defeated then-Vice President Al Gore. But a New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll taken between October 24-26 found Trump leading Harris 50.2% to 49.8%.

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“There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory,” Trump national campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, who hails from New Hampshire, declared. “To my fellow Granite Staters who want to keep our beautiful state safe, business-friendly, and free — get out and vote for President Trump. Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would destroy New Hampshire and America forever.”

Last week, an Emerson College poll found Harris leading Trump 50%-47%. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by seven points over Trump. In 2016, Trump won a whopping victory in the New Hampshire primary, garnering more than 35% of the vote in a field of eight viable candidates. In 2024, Trump became the first non-incumbent Republican candidate ever to win the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary in the same year.

For roughly 130 years, between 1860 and 1990, New Hampshire was a reliably conservative state; only Democrats Woodrow Wilson (1912, 1916), Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1936,1940, 1944), and Lyndon Johnson (1964) were able to win in the state. But the last 32 years have seen Democrats dominate the presidential election in the state; a Trump victory might signal a turn back to the conservative views the state had hitherto held.

Although New Hampshire has only four Electoral College votes, those might prove significant if the 2024 election becomes a narrowly contested race, and the state voting for Trump may portend a resurgence of conservatism in the solidly Democratic Northeastern states (Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut).