Is a ceasefire in Lebanon really drawing close, and could it be enforced?

JERUSALEM – Reports have emerged over the last 24 hours or so about the possibility of a ceasefire between the warring parties in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. This is partly due to Israeli officials intimating this week it might be possible to draw down the fighting and attempt to reach a diplomatic settlement. Residents of Israel’s north, still displaced by incessant daily rocket and drone strikes, likely would beg to differ with this assessment.

Special Coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk, along with Special Envoy Amos Hochstein, arrived in Israel Thursday, ostensibly to attempt to broker some kind of truce to end the fighting in Lebanon and to provide a means for some 80,000 or so residents of Israel’s north – who have been internally displaced since Oct. 8, 2023 – to return to their homes and attempt to reestablish some sense of normalcy in their daily lives.

There have been suggestions both from the military and political echelons that Israel could consider a reality beyond the war. The IDF Northern Command has intimated it is nearing the completion of its mission to raze Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure both around and on the border with Israel – and there certainly seems to be significant evidence for this. Indeed, it appears the IDF uncovered several staging areas, and weapons stores – some of them a mere stone’s throw away from UNIFIL “peacekeeper” bases – which were to be used in a Hezbollah attack – “Conquering the Galilee” – which would likely have dwarfed the Hamas attack on Oct. 7.

The more I look at this agreement it seems like an easy way for Lebanon to get a “ceasefire” when it is Hezbollah that has been attacking Israel…and then nothing changes and Lebanon is asked to dismantle “armed groups”…but this is an Orwellian term where the government never… https://t.co/IAfeaVV41F pic.twitter.com/XVoIum0xsJ

— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) October 31, 2024

On Wednesday evening, a draft of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was by Israeli state broadcaster KAN. Israel is thought to have approached the U.S. and suggested a cease fire deal be based on U.N. Resolution 1701, which brought the Second Lebanon War to an end in 2006. The document, which Hochstein allegedly drafted, has reportedly been presented to Israel’s political establishment. The main items include:

• Full cessation of hostilities by both sides.
• Both sides maintain the right to self-defense.
• Only UNIFIL and the Lebanese army will deploy south of the Litani line.
• Lebanon will be responsible for stopping the rearmament of Hezbollah. They are tasked with stopping arms from coming in and Hezbollah from reestablishing infrastructure.
• During a 60 day period Israel will remain in Lebanon and during that time the removal of Hezbollah to above the Litani line will commence.
• Only if the sides are happy with the progress of the disarmament will the conflict end permanently. That means after 60 days, Israel gets to evaluate progress.
• If satisfied, Israel and Lebanon will proceed to talks on how to fully implement Resolution 1701 and resolve border disputes.

In addition to any deal between Israel and Lebanon, there is also an outline for a verification mechanism, which includes the following:

• A monitoring mechanism will be chaired by the United States. If there are violations, that mechanism will look into them within a reasonable timeframe.
• There will be consequences for violations including sanctions.
• Israel has the right to act militarily at recognized violations that are not addressed in certain areas.
• Israel has the right to recon overflights over Lebanon.

Israel is understandably a bit twitchy at the prospect of trusting enforcement of the resolution – particularly as it has been so obviously ignored for the last 18 years, as Hezbollah had built up the largest arsenal of missiles in the Middle East, certainly of any non-state actor. In addition to U.S. involvement there is speculation Jerusalem might turn to Moscow to ensure arms cannot be smuggled into Lebanon over the Syrian border or by air or sea.

Despite the proposal, and the seeming encouragement of the Biden administration – especially so close to the U.S. presidential election – there is a good deal of skepticism both in Israel and among U.S.-based Middle East analysts. One of the key issues, clearly, is the role Hezbollah still plays in the Lebanese political scene. None of the other sectarian groups, as well as the official Lebanese army, has felt emboldened to stand up against it; is there any evidence things will be different now?

None of this would have been possible had Israel followed the Biden administration’s advice and refrained from decapitating Hezbollah’s leadership and degrading its capabilities.

Any deal that lets Iran rebuild Hezbollah would be a disaster. https://t.co/KSg2F2eNf9

— Mark Dubowitz (@mdubowitz) October 31, 2024

This also does not take into account Iran, which despite the obvious setback of its now being largely defenseless against Israel’s air force following the strikes over the weekend, is still heavily invested in Hezbollah. There are perhaps too many variables to in any way predict a lessening of the intensity of the war. While Israel’s military strategists have proved the soundness of their plans as the war has pivoted away from Gaza toward the northern arena, it seems far too early to embark on any kind of victory lap.

And as the negotiators meet, the fighting does not seem to be letting up any. Israel used hundreds of tons of explosives to destroy Hezbollah cross-border attack tunnels, as well as command centers. The IAF has continued to target the Iranian proxy’s high-ranking field commanders, as well as weapons depots. Crucially, however, the fate of Hezbollah’s 1,500 or so precision-guided missiles, which can cause such accurate destruction and take out or certainly take off-line crucial Israeli civil and defense infrastructure are assessed to have remained unscathed in the IDF’s southern Lebanon campaign.

Meanwhile, on the Israeli side, the fighting has taken a toll over the last two weeks or so. Several reservists have been killed recently, leaving more than 70 Israeli children without a father. Two reservists in their 40s had 18 children between them. And Thursday also saw one of the deadliest days since the tragic killing of 12 school children playing soccer in Majdal Shams in July – when a Hezbollah rocket killed five – four foreign workers and one Israeli – working in an apple orchard in the northern town of Metula. One other person was seriously wounded.

Despite the talk of ceasefires – and Hamas declined to agree to another proposal Thursday – the fighting goes on, with the likelihood there will be more mayhem, death and destruction to come.