Is the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire Biden’s finest hour, or final nail in coffin of foreign policy failures?

JERUSALEM – Some 12 hours into the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, and it is still holding, although the IDF had to fire warning shots at suspected Hezbollah operatives who provocatively strayed too close to Israeli army positions in southern Lebanon.

Opinion about the likely efficacy of the cessation of arms is sharply divided; with some claiming it as a necessary and inevitable way of taking the heat out of the Middle East’s latest hot war, while others decry both its implementation and the manner in which it was done, suggesting the IDF’s work is not done.

Most military analysts and politicians agree it is by no means a perfect solution, and any optimism is somewhat tempered by the knowledge that the ferocity of the fighting was almost artificially brought to an end. There is definitely a healthy sense of skepticism too given the situation on the ground, and Iran’s malign influence lurking in the background, as to whether there is any long-term chance of the ceasefire holding.

Under the deal reached today, the fighting across the Lebanon-Israel border will end tomorrow.

Lasting security for the people of Israel and Lebanon cannot be achieved only on the battlefield – that’s why I directed my team to work with the governments of Israel and Lebanon to… pic.twitter.com/pUMFcryWvS

— President Biden (@POTUS) November 27, 2024

Which brings us to one of the main architects of the ceasefire – America’s outgoing President Joe Biden.

Officially, now that Donald Trump has been re-elected to the presidency, Biden has entered his lame-duck period, although some might legitimately point to the fact he may have entered this period the moment he was replaced as the Democratic Party nominee by Vice President Kamala Harris, following his apparent mental collapse in the first televised debate with the GOP candidate.

He – and his administration – with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan particularly to the forefront – have relentlessly pushed for the securing of a ceasefire for months – although seemingly aimed more at the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza – almost to the detriment of any other possible resolution. Now it has arrived, does it represent some kind of achievement or does it, in fact, highlight the foreign policy failures, which have pockmarked the Biden administration, and topped by the astonishingly inept withdrawal from Afghanistan on Sept. 11, 2021?

Biden has now coupled the Israel-Lebanon-Hezbollah ceasefire with a reported reanimation of the push for some kind of truce between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. He wrote on X, “Over the coming days, the United States will make another push with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza with the hostages released and an end to the war without Hamas in power.”

It is somewhat galling that in the final stretch of his administration, with his legacy presumably on the line, there is suddenly extra effort being exerted on these critical issues, when for weeks all the president seemed to do was lounge on a Rehoboth beach.

This represents one of the first times he has called for Hamas to be removed from power, but there was concern in some quarters the release of the 101 hostages – both those known to be dead and those still alive – was not the first priority. Also, the presence of both Qatar and Turkey, who either have or are hosting Hamas leadership might ordinarily be an additional stumbling block, although the Biden administration has consistently relied upon them.

Meanwhile, Trump allies in the Republican party were quick to point out how much changed – in both the Biden administration’s emphasis as well as the regional temperature, following the GOP candidate’s elevation to the White House.

U.S. Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., Trump’s choice for his national security adviser, said in a post on X on Tuesday, shortly before the Israel Cabinet signed off on the agreement. “His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated. I’m glad to see concrete steps toward deescalation in the Middle East.”

Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump.

His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated. I’m glad to see concrete steps towards deescalation in the Middle East.

But let’s be clear: The Iran Regime is the…

— Rep. Mike Waltz (@michaelgwaltz) November 26, 2024