It May Be Kamala’s Convention, But Trump Is Getting The Surge

Vice President Kamala Harris, if tradition holds, should be seeing a bump in her poll numbers coming out of the Democratic National Convention (DNC), which will wrap up on Thursday evening as she officially accepts the 2024 presidential nomination from her party. But even as the final hours of the convention tick by, it’s her Republican opponent — former President Donald Trump — who appears to be surging.

According to a report from Fox Business, Trump received a boost on at least two betting sites, surging past Harris on Polymarket and coming up just short of surpassing her on BetUS.

As of Wednesday, Polymarket predicted a 52% chance that Trump would come out ahead in the 2024 presidential election — up six points from the 46% chance they gave him one week prior. Harris’ odds, in the same time period — despite the fact that her convention was in full swing — dropped from 51% to 47%.

On BetUS, Trump was given a 52.38% chance to Harris’ 54.55% — and he appeared to still be making headway.

According to the report, BetUS public relations director Tim Williams had a few ideas as to what might be giving Trump such a boost — from rumors of a potential endorsement from independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the latest jobs numbers.

“My pure speculation might be that the betting public believes that having to revise down payroll growth by 818,000 jobs — that’s 818,000 fewer jobs than reported earlier — could hurt Harris,” he told Fox Business, noting that the Biden-Harris administration had been boasting about creating nearly a million jobs that did not actually exist.

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Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane noted that media scrutiny over Harris’ economic policy proposals — which had been panned by the Right and the Left — could also account for her slipping in the betting markets.

Model update:

Trump 52.5%
Harris 40.3%

Still some uncertainty because of RFK decision and time until the election.

Significant market moves in the past week. Likely a combination of:
1. Harris releasing economic policies (unpopular)
2. More Harris media exposure.
3. RFK… pic.twitter.com/x91x6GAeXR

— Harry Crane (@HarryDCrane) August 21, 2024

“I’m not aware of anything new that’s happened on Trump’s front in the past week that would warrant him coming back in any kind of drastic fashion,” Crane told Fox Business. “I think that the most obvious things that I see is that Harris has released some economic proposals, and she’s answered a few questions more than before. And maybe those haven’t been so great for her.”

Clay Travis argued that the boost might be the result of a rumored RFK endorsement, saying, “As the third night of the DNC drags on, Trump has taken a 7% point lead in the gambling markets, moving from -10 to +7 in a few days, a pretty seismic 17% swing. RFK, Jr (potentially) endorsing him has stolen the DNC narrative.”

As the third night of the DNC drags on, Trump has taken a 7% point lead in the gambling markets, moving from -10 to +7 in a few days, a pretty seismic 17% swing. RFK, Jr (potentially) endorsing him has stolen the DNC narrative. pic.twitter.com/sZ8klV1QHd

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) August 22, 2024