‘January surprise’: Is Biden about to pull an Obama-style stab in back against Israel?

JERUSALEM – As the Biden administration enters the final stretch of its disastrous run, people’s attention has turned to what the final two-or-so weeks will bring. As far as Israel is concerned there appears to be both hope and concern with a proposed multi-billion dollar arms sale offset by the potential for an Obama-style stab in back at the United Nations.

Surprisingly, reports emerged from the White House on Saturday, which highlighted the Biden administration announcing its intention to approve an $8 billion arms sale to Israel, with the U.S. State Department “informally” notifying Congress about the proposed deal, according to the New York Times.

US said preparing $8 billion arms package for Israel, including heavy bombs https://t.co/uzzqQOSmV3 via @timesofisrael pic.twitter.com/2uLkv3t660

— My right to exist (@MyRightToExist) January 4, 2025

The deal reportedly includes artillery shells, small-diameter bombs, munitions for fighter jets and helicopters, and GPS-guided bomb systems. However, many of the munitions in the package are not intended for immediate use, as production is expected to begin soon. The final delivery to Israel may not take place for several years.

Meanwhile, protesters have for months demanded an arms embargo against Israel, concerned at what they view as Israel’s overreaction to the slaughter of Oct. 7, without ever elucidating how they would deal with terrorists bent on killing all the Jews they can get their hands, but U.S. policy has largely remained unchanged.

In August, the United States approved the sale of $20 billion in fighter jets and other military equipment to Israel. However, during her car-crash bid for the presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris, of whom precious little has been heard since her definitive defeat in the Nov. 5 plebiscite against President-elect Donald Trump, admitted that despite congressional approval, she had a hand in slow-walking provision of arms to Israel so it could continue its fight against the forces arrayed against it.

Note that @KamalaHarris only proudly makes reference to the pressure she brought to bear on @Israel by withholding weapons from our ally. She doesn’t once mention pressure on Hamas or condemn their evil and barbaric acts with the implication being that she believes that Israel… https://t.co/H4gpEmREp0

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) September 18, 2024

The Biden administration says it is helping its ally defend against Iran-backed terrorist groups like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

In spite of the Biden administration’s apparent backing for the arms sale, on New Year’s Day senior Hudson Institute fellow Michael Doran predicted on the “Israel Update” podcast he co-hosts with Israeli historian and political commentator Gadi Taub that “a network of anti-Israel officials” in the Biden White House is urging him and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to spring a “nasty January surprise” on Israel.

Doran alleged it would be along similar lines to one of the final acts of the outgoing Obama administration in Decemebr 2016, in which then-U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power abstained on the vote for United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334, which sought to turn the ceasefire lines that separated Israel from Jordan before the 1967 war into an internationally recognized political boundary between Israel and a Palestinian state. This so-called “occupied Palestinian territory,” included east Jerusalem’s Jewish neighborhoods, the Jewish quarter of the Old City and the Western Wall.

“This year’s January surprise aims to find Israel officially guilty of blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza, thereby laying the evidentiary basis for a new U.N. resolution punishing Israel,” Doran posted on X.

This seems an unusual line of attack, and one which Doran and Taub mentioned on their podcast, in that U.S. ambassador to Israel Jack Lew put pressure on USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network to take down a report, which wrongly accused Israel of failing to provide enough aid to Gaza.

“The report issued today on Gaza by FEWS NET relies on data that is outdated and inaccurate,” a statement from the embassy said. “We have worked closely with the Government of Israel and the U.N. to provide greater access to the North Governorate, and it is now apparent that the civilian population in that part of Gaza is in the range of 7,000-15,000, not 65,000-75,000 which is the basis of this report.”

A network of anti-Israel officials in President Biden’s administration is urging him and Secretary of State Blinken to spring on Israel a nasty January surprise. They model their scheme on the ambush at the United Nations that President Obama sprung on Israeli Prime Minister…

— Mike (@Doranimated) January 1, 2025

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Doran explained the Biden administration, like the Obama one before it, will try to “have it both ways.”

“The January surprise is that there will be an official finding by the State Department that Israel is in violation of 620(i). It’s blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza, and then what will happen is that the president will waive the penalties for blocking of the humanitarian aid, but there will have been an official American finding,” Doran said.

“There will be an official American finding, but there will be no penalties to Israel, so again the administration gets to have it both ways. Finds Israel guilty but then says, ‘Well we’re not going to do anything about it,” according to the Jewish News Syndicate.

He added that the resolution, whether the United States officially backs it or not, will likely open the door to the International Court of Justice, International Criminal Court, European Union and others will use the “offiical American finding” to pressure Israel.

There is apparently division on this within the Biden White House, with different sides of the argument fighting it out among themselves, and it isn’t yet clear if it would have the backing of Biden and/ or Blinken.

One other aspect is the likelihood the incoming Trump administration and Congress would likely prevent such a scheme from taking place.