Kamala Harris' chances to win just got even worse, according to updated model from Nate Silver
An update to Nate Silver's election prediction model has former President Donald Trump increasing his chances to beat Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Previously, the model said that Trump had a 52.4% chance to beat Harris, but the updated assessment from Wednesday drops her chances to 41.6%. It places Trump's chances to beat Harris at an astounding 58.3%. 'They haven't really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer.' The model calculates that Trump would win 274.7 electoral votes while Harris would only garner 263.3. To win the election, a candidate must win a majority of electoral votes, or more than 270. Silver explained that new polling from swing states didn't help the Harris campaign because the model adjusts against partisan-sponsored polling that showed the two candidates in a tie. "Our polling averages apply a relatively harsh 'house effects' adjustment to partisan-sponsored polls, so it interprets ties in partisan polls as losing. And PA/MI/WI polls are really important to the forecast," wrote Silver. He said Harris had dropped her lead in Pennsylvania from 1.8% to only 1%. "In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris. National polls and polls of other swing states [are] mostly decent for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts a lot in the model," he explained. He went on to say that some of Harris' weakness comes from hiring so many Biden people onto her campaign. "There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro [is] beginning to look bad and they haven't really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer," he added. Silver also had a tip on how to improve Harris' chances to win. "If I were a rich D donor and wanted to maximize Kamala's chances of winning, I'd pay a $10M bounty to lure ex-Biden senior staffers away from the campaign and replace them with fresher/better people. Give them a nice job consulting on the Luxembourg parliamentary election etc.," he tweeted. Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!
An update to Nate Silver's election prediction model has former President Donald Trump increasing his chances to beat Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Previously, the model said that Trump had a 52.4% chance to beat Harris, but the updated assessment from Wednesday drops her chances to 41.6%. It places Trump's chances to beat Harris at an astounding 58.3%.
'They haven't really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer.'
The model calculates that Trump would win 274.7 electoral votes while Harris would only garner 263.3. To win the election, a candidate must win a majority of electoral votes, or more than 270.
Silver explained that new polling from swing states didn't help the Harris campaign because the model adjusts against partisan-sponsored polling that showed the two candidates in a tie.
"Our polling averages apply a relatively harsh 'house effects' adjustment to partisan-sponsored polls, so it interprets ties in partisan polls as losing. And PA/MI/WI polls are really important to the forecast," wrote Silver.
He said Harris had dropped her lead in Pennsylvania from 1.8% to only 1%.
"In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris. National polls and polls of other swing states [are] mostly decent for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts a lot in the model," he explained.
He went on to say that some of Harris' weakness comes from hiring so many Biden people onto her campaign.
"There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro [is] beginning to look bad and they haven't really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer," he added.
Silver also had a tip on how to improve Harris' chances to win.
"If I were a rich D donor and wanted to maximize Kamala's chances of winning, I'd pay a $10M bounty to lure ex-Biden senior staffers away from the campaign and replace them with fresher/better people. Give them a nice job consulting on the Luxembourg parliamentary election etc.," he tweeted.
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Originally Published at Daily Wire, World Net Daily, or The Blaze
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