Latino voters now moving away from Democrat candidates

In the past four years, approximately 4 million Latino Americans have become eligible to vote, making the Latino population account for 14.7% of all eligible voters. This increasingly independent cohort is up for grabs, and one conservative Latino-focused PAC intends to win them over.

The bloc was a key part of the coalition that helped deliver President Joe Biden to the White House in 2020. In 12 of the 13 states with the largest Latino populations, Latinos supported Biden over former President Donald Trump by a margin of at least two to one. And in nine of the 13 states, that margin was at least three to one. Only in Florida was Biden’s margin less than two to one.

Biden achieved no extraordinary feat with these numbers – Latinos have historically voted Democrat. But recent polling suggests Latino voters are increasingly moving away from Democratic candidates – and toward independents. Pew Research polling from July showed that 36% of all registered Latinos supported Biden and 36% supported Trump, while 24% supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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“What was happening on the Democratic side is that an increasing number of people …[were] choosing more independent,” Clarissa Martinez, a voting expert with the advocacy group UnidosUS, told NPR. “[That] took away support from the traditional 60% level that Democrats have enjoyed, but it wasn’t translating directly as support on the Republican side.”

Now, as the country hurdles toward November at breakneck speed, the Koch-funded Libre Advocacy Group is trying to convince Latino voters that they should support the Republican Party at the ballot box.

Libre is “the only game in town when it comes to the center right,” in the words of President Daniel Garza. The PAC operates in 15 different states and employs door-knocking to identify Latinos who are aligned with their ideals and “go after them,” said Garza.

Libre is throwing its weight behind dozens of Republican Congressional candidates, including in the swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The candidates they endorse do not necessarily campaign on Latino-focused platforms, but that’s not the point. Libre is interested in turning out support for candidates who are aligned with “American principles,” Garza tells RCP.

“We support candidates who will uphold individual freedoms, limited government, private property – the kind of principles that have made America strong and will continue to make America strong,” Garza said. “We feel that when policies are focused on making sure that everyone rises, then Latinos will rise automatically. We’re not asking for special or exclusive policies that are targeted just at Latinos.”

Libre has identified millions of like-minded Latinos by canvassing, hosting events, and teaching classes in competitive districts year-round, even on election off-years. Their database now consists of seven million Latino voters, an achievement Libre spokesperson Wadi Gaitan says they’ve earned through consistency.

“We don’t parachute into neighborhoods. We’re doing community events around the year, not just on election years, but on off years,” Gaitan told RCP. “It’s not just a 120-day sprint to try to introduce ourselves and tell them to vote a certain way. It’s the relationship we’ve been building through the years in these communities.”

Libre hopes to capitalize on disaffected Latino voters and their growing distaste for Democratic policies – especially economic. When Latino voters were asked to rank their top three issues, 54% of respondents answered “inflation/rising cost of living,” and 44% answered “jobs and the economy.” The following three answers were “health care” (33%), “crime/gun violence” (29%), and “lack of affordable housing/high rents” (25%). Three of the top five most important issues to Latino voters, then, were related to costs and the economy.

Libre is trying to make economic anxiety synonymous with the Democratic party. One of the ways they’ve done this is through a “BideNOmics” campaign in which Libre team members set up at Spanish grocery markets and restaurants in competitive districts and speak to patrons about policies they say have driven up inflation, like overspending and a failure to balance budgets.

Concern about the economy has “provided a window of opportunity for the Republican party,” Garza said. Republican politicians, in his words, simply need to “show up, connect with the Latino community, and say ‘these are the ideas that are superior to the ones you’ve been seeing, and you need to vote for these folks who are going to reverse the trajectory.’”

Libre-backed candidates are hammering home these economic messages. Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania has railed against the “red tape” and overreach of the Biden administration, claiming Pennsylvania has a strong economy only in spite of government meddling. In the battleground state of Nevada, GOP contender Sam Brown is trying to fend off Sen. Jacky Rosen’s reelection bid with the help of the Libre playbook.

“Jacky Rosen is a day-one supporter of Bidenomics and Kamala Harris – voting with what Joe Biden wants 98% of the time – and Nevadans are still suffering because of her hyper-partisan allegiance putting party over the people she claims to represent,” Brown said.

While media headlines have been dominated by the presidential race – a contest Libre has stayed out of because they do not have the infrastructure necessary to support a national candidate, Garza says – Senate and House races will determine the effectiveness of whomever next moves into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

It is the gamble of Libre that they’ve identified congressional candidates who can eke out a victory with help from Latino voters. And if mobilizing Republican-leaning Latino voters to head to the ballot box in November affects the outcome of the presidential race – so be it.

“I suppose you can say that if we turn out people for Senate races and congressional races for the Republican ticket, then that’s going to benefit the presidential candidate,” said Garza.

Trump may need the help. While his polling numbers against Biden were impressive – one NYT/Siena College poll placed Trump ahead of Biden, with 50% support among Latino voters compared to Biden’s 41% – there has been enthusiasm for Kamala Harris since she took over as the Democratic standard bearer.

Voto Latino told NPR they experienced a 221% increase in voter registrations in the days after Harris announced her candidacy. In response, Libre and its candidates have been sure to emphasize the fact that Harris was deeply involved in the economic policies they claim have hurt Latinos so badly.

“The race has been shaken up, the candidates may have changed, but the policies did not change,” Garza said. “I mean, Vice President Harris has promoted every policy that created the highest inflation in four decades, which has wreaked havoc on working Latino families.”

Surveys show that Latino voters are less likely to hear from political campaigns than their black or white counterparts, making a PAC like Libre all the more influential. In a sphere that has historically been dominated by liberal messaging – or no messaging at all – the conservatism espoused by Libre and Libre-backed candidates may be hitting its mark.

“There’s been a fight to earn the vote of the Latino community like never before from both sides,” said Garza. “I just think the GOP has done a better job with their candidates and their people of connecting with Latino communities and telling the story of where they stand and how much they align with the Latino community, like on economic issues. Latinos have been turned off by the Democratic party.”

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