Market ‘Very Convinced’ Trump Is Going To Win, Billionaire Investor Says

A billionaire investor said on Wednesday that the market — in which multiple stock indices rose to record highs this week — anticipates victory by former President Donald Trump.

Stanley Druckenmiller, the chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Office, made the assessment during an interview on Bloomberg Television just under three weeks before Election Day.

“The market and the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is going to win,” Duquesne Family Office Chair and CEO Stanley Druckenmiller says https://t.co/U2lNkFZd30 pic.twitter.com/jtDyvRoZD9

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) October 16, 2024

“I must say in the last 12 days, the market and the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is going to win,” Druckenmiller said.

“You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in DJT, his social media company,” he added.

“Throughout the whole, I would say, the industries that are deregulated — if we had deregulation — will benefit from Trump or outperforming the others,” Druckenmiller said.

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Druckenmiller emphasized how it is an “evolving situation” and he personally does not have “conviction” on who will emerge the winner.

But Druckenmiller explained that he likes “market indicators” for the economy and finance, as well as elections.

“I remember how right the market was on Ronald Reagan in 1980, despite what the pundits were saying,” he said.

Trump has been surging ahead in betting markets over the past several days, even though polling shows a close race between him and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Druckenmiller took a swipe at the polls, saying, “Who knows what these polls even mean. No one even responds to them anymore.”

The hedge fund manager also talked about which political party will take control of one or both chambers of Congress.

He said a “blue sweep is extremely unlikely,” noting that Republicans seem to be on the verge of taking back the Senate even if Harris wins the presidential race.

Druckenmiller said a “red sweep” is more likely than a Trump presidency with a “blue Congress” because he doubts voters backing the former president would split the ticket for Democrats in Congress.

The economy could be “potentially stronger” for three to six months with a “red sweep,” Druckenmiller said before cautioning that a “bad response” in fixed-income markets could “snuff out” the equity rally.

Regardless of what the markets may be predicting, Druckenmiller said he would not personally support Trump or Harris and would “probably write in someone.”

Although he contended both candidates are “unified on some things” like industrial policy, Druckenmiller noted concerns with Trump’s tariffs plan and negotiation tactics with foreign countries.

Harris would be “much worse in terms of anti-bigness, anti-business, and regulation,” Druckenmiller said.