Nate Silver Publishes Two Dozen Reasons Why Trump Could Defeat Kamala

A well-known statistician, Nate Silver, shared on Sunday two dozen reasons why he believes former President Donald Trump could defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

In a post to his online newsletter, the “Silver Bulletin,” Silver explained how he wanted to provide a “laundry list” of factors that favor Trump to counter the notion that this year’s White House race is Harris’ to lose.

The list was published less than three weeks out from Election Day as betting markets, polls, and Silver Bulletin’s own forecast show Trump gaining momentum and leading Harris in key battleground states.

Silver said Harris is favored to win the popular vote, but he stressed Republicans are favored by a 2-point Electoral College “bias” that is “inherently difficult for Democrats to overcome” in close elections.

Other reasons focused on the economy, including high inflation, voter “perceptions” that lag “objective data,” and “nostalgia” for the “relatively strong” economy under Trump before the COVID pandemic hit.

Silver noted that incumbent parties are doing “very poorly” worldwide, populism is “often a highly effective strategy,” and illegal immigration “increased substantially” in recent years as backlash to it grew.

He said Harris lacks a “viable strategy” for explaining her changing stances and has to contend with a late start to her run as well as taking in some of the staff from President Joe Biden’s “poorly-run” campaign.

Taking a look at a broader scale in the U.S., Silver declared that “cultural vibes are shifting to the right” while the Left “continues to pay a price for the excesses of 2020 on COVID, crime, ‘wokeness,’ and other issues.”

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More of Silver’s reasons included Democrats losing support among black voters and other minority groups as well as “many men, especially younger men,” feeling “lost” amid a number of societal shifts.

Silver said voter “objections” related to Biden’s advanced age before he dropped out of the 2024 race ultimately “neuters what should have been one of Harris’s best issues about Trump’s age and cognitive fitness.”

Harris, seeking to become the first woman president, was also mentioned as a reason why Trump might win, as Silver explained that in the 2016 election, “undecideds broke heavily against Hillary Clinton, and she underperformed her polls.”

Silver listed low trust in the media, Trump’s effectiveness at “convincing voters that he’s on their side even if his election would not be in their best interest,” and the Democrats focusing so much on January 6.

There is also the Democrats’ “college-educated consultant class” having “poor instincts” for appealing to the mass public while Trump has “done more to cultivate support among ‘weird’ marginal voting groups.”

Further reasons included how the world has become “more unstable” under Biden, the Israel-Hamas war fracturing the Democratic base, and Harris running on “vibes” while struggling to “articulate” her vision.

Silver also listed more Left-leaning third-party candidates than Right-leaning ones, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsing Trump, Elon Musk backing Trump, and Trump surviving two assassination attempts.