NBC News Pollster Breaks Down ‘Broader Movement’ Favoring Trump In Polls

The polls are making a “potentially meaningful” shift in favor of former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris in the final stretch of the 2024 White House race, NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki said on Sunday.

During a segment on “Meet The Press,” Kornacki explained the significance of four recent surveys — polls from CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and Siena, and CNN — all of which either showed Trump slightly ahead nationally, or the candidates in a tie.

NBC's Kornacki: I Don't Want To Overstate Poll Movement In Trump's Direction But It's Hard To Ignore

Polls here – https://t.co/PaqCqgCEzj pic.twitter.com/qL1s06pA7v

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“One thing we have noticed in the last couple days, this is not all of the polls that are out there now, but we have seen a number — four in the last four days — that have shown very small – but in the context of this close race, potentially meaningful — movement in Trump’s direction,” Kornacki said.

“I don’t want to overstate it, but at the same time, it’s hard to ignore these four,” he added. “The CNBC poll came out the other day, has Trump ahead by 2. The Wall Street Journal poll, Trump ahead by 3. These are national numbers. Siena and the New York Times, a tied race. CNN, a tied race. The significance here is broader movement, again, we’re seeing in Trump’s direction.”

Harris leads in the national polls, albeit by a shrinking margin, but in the battleground states that will be critical for securing 270 mark to win the Electoral College the margins are “absolutely razor thin,” Kornacki said, displaying a graphic showing Trump with the advantage in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina; Harris with the edge in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and a tie in Nevada.

Nationally, Kornacki said, “We can show you from the CNBC poll, they picked up on something that our own NBC poll was suggesting recently, and that is a shift in the image of Kamala Harris. You could see right now in the CNBC poll, 42% positive, 48% negative. Higher negative than positive. That’s where Trump is too, largely: 39%, 49%. The significance is, about a month ago when we were polling this, Harris had a higher positive than negative. In our poll, in the CNBC poll, in other polls out there right now, we see Harris now with that negative going back above that positive rating.”

Kornacki stressed that “tons of uncertainty and volatility remain in this race,” and he discussed how “from that CNBC poll, looking at this question of persuadable voters, defining them this way. How about this: 12% in the CNBC poll who currently say they support Harris or Trump say that they could change their mind, still, in this race. Another 6% say they’re undecided or currently going to vote for a third-party candidate. That’s a persuadable category of 18%. That’s getting close to one-in-five voters here. And the uncertainty is particularly acute for Donald Trump.”

He added: “Maybe [Trump’s] made some gains here but his support continues to run deepest with voters who it is unclear if they’re actually going to turn out and vote. Look at it this way, from our NBC polling, a merge of all of our data, those who voted in the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 midterms, Harris with a 6-point lead. The most reliable bloc of voters. Those who only voted in the 2020 presidential, that’s where Trump opens up a lead. And then those who didn’t vote in either, that’s where Trump has his biggest advantage over Harris. Are they actually going to vote this time around? Huge question mark. Another way to look at it, we asked folks, scale of 1 to 10: your interest in this election. Again, look at this. Those who rate it the highest, 9 or 10, race is tied. Seven or 8, pretty high, Harris is ahead. Here’s where Trump cleans up: those who say 1 to 6. So again, Trump relying on a coalition that, if they turn out, could be powerful for him … but that’s a big if.”