New Poll Indicates Longtime Senate Democrat Could Be Toast In November

Three-term Democratic Senator Jon Tester may be in trouble in Montana as a poll released Wednesday shows him trailing by six points to Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy. 

Tester, who is facing a difficult re-election campaign in a state former President Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2020, is backed by 44.7% of likely Montana voters, while Sheehy had the support of 50.8%, according to a new survey from American Pulse Research and Polling. Nearly 4% of those polled indicated they were still undecided.  

American Pulse conducted the poll of 538 likely Montana voters on behalf of NonStop LOCAL, a regional news network covering parts of Washington, Idaho, and Montana. 

“While there’s still a lot of time before Election Day, it appears Montana could be on the cusp of delivering a Republican Majority in the U.S. Senate,” said lead American Pulse pollster Dustin Olson. “Likely driving this result, Montanans chose ‘Economy and Inflation’ as their #1 Issue and that they trust Tim Sheehy to handle it better than Senator Jon Tester.”

The survey was conducted from August 10 to 12, the days after Trump held a rally in Bozeman, and has a 4.2% margin of error. 

Montana’s Senate race is considered one of the most critical in the 2024 election, as Democrats seek to retain their majority and Republicans hope to flip control. 

The top issues for all voters surveyed were inflation and economic issues (27.6), affordable housing (15.2%), and immigration and the border (14.3%). Voters backing Trump and Sheehy cited inflation, immigration, and taxes as their top issues, while those backing Vice President Kamala Harris and Tester selected affordable housing, democracy, and inflation as their key issues.

WATCH THE TRAILER FOR ‘AM I RACIST?’ — A MATT WALSH COMEDY ON DEI

The poll also found that Trump has a 14-point lead in Montana over Harris, consistent with his 2016 and 2020 victories in the state. 

During his Friday rally in front of 8,000 supporters at the Brick Breeden Fieldhouse in Bozeman, Trump and other top Montana GOP figures called for the crowd to back Sheehy in November. 

“The nation is watching Montana; they are counting on us, eighty-eight days away, in this most consequential election,” Montana GOP Sen. Steve Daines said at the rally. “If we are going to take this country back, we must elect President Trump and we must elect Tim Sheehy to support President Trump back in Washington.”

Related: Democrat Jon Tester Campaigns Against His Own Record In Montana