PA Senate Race Moves From ‘Lean Dem’ To ‘Toss-Up’

With just two weeks remaining in the 2024 campaign, the Pennsylvania Senate matchup between Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick has moved to a “toss-up,” according to the Cook Political Report.

The shift toward the Republican candidate took place after an Atlas Intel poll was released last week, showing McCormick up by 1 point on Casey. McCormick has cut into Casey’s lead over the past month in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. At the end of September, McCormick trailed Casey by five points, but as of Monday afternoon, the Republican is only down by 1.9 points, per the RCP average.

The Pennsylvania race becomes the fourth Senate “toss-up,” along with Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, according to Cook Political Report. All of the Senate seats in the “toss-up” races are currently held by Democrats. Republicans are favored to flip the seats in Montana and West Virginia, which would give them a 51-seat majority assuming they hold onto the seats in races where they are projected to win.

The best path for Democrats to maintain control of the Senate would require that the party holds onto each of the “toss-up” seats while also pulling off an upset in one of the “lean or likely Republican” races: Montana, Texas, or Florida.

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McCormick said last week that his surge in the polls is because Pennsylvanians “can see now it’s between a seventh-generation Pennsylvanian, an outsider, a business guy, someone who went to West Point and served in combat, versus a guy who’s been in elected office for 30 years and has been weak in a 99% vote for these liberal policies.

“The more they learn as voters, the better,” he added.

Meanwhile, Casey — the incumbent Democrat in the Pennsylvania race — attached himself to former President Donald Trump in a recent campaign ad. Trump recently moved ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the polling of Pennsylvania, a state that many consider to be the most important battleground contest of the 2024 election.

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“Casey bucked Biden to protect fracking and he sided with Trump to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China to stop them from cheating,” the ad states.

Bob Casey thinks Donald Trump is going to win Pennsylvania.

That’s the only way to explain Casey’s new ad, which ALIGNS HIM WITH TRUMP.

He bucks Biden by name, and does not mention Kamala Harris at all.

An endangered Dem is RUNNING AWAY FROM HARRIS AND WITH TRUMP.

Just huge. pic.twitter.com/AZfcVeM02E

— Tim Murtaugh (@TimMurtaugh) October 18, 2024