Polling Averages Have Trump Up In Every Battleground State, Building Lead

Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead in every battleground state, according to polling averages calculated by RealClear Polling.

Since Thursday, Trump has been edging out Vice President Kamala Harris in the vital battlegrounds; his overall average lead in the states increased by +0.3 by Saturday.

In Arizona, Trump is performing his best, up by 1.8 points, followed by Georgia (+1.7), North Carolina (+1.0), and Michigan (+0.9). The former president also holds leads in Nevada (+0.8), Pennsylvania (+0.5), and Wisconsin, where the lead is extremely tight, at +0.1.

RealClear Polling calculates the average of numerous polls, including The New York Time/Siena College, The Wall Street Journal, The Hill/Emerson, the Trafalgar Group, and others.

RCP’s average for national polls shows Harris ahead 49.2%-47.9% as of Saturday. But the site’s Electoral College page shows Trump being favored to win 219 electoral votes, Harris being favored to get 215 electoral votes, and 104 electoral votes labeled as “toss ups.” And with RCP’s “No Toss-up” option, Trump leads Harris 312-226 after Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania started to lean toward the GOP over the past few weeks.

In another positive sign for the Trump team, Democrats down-ballot in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are boasting of their ties to Trump, according to a report from Axios.

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Moreover, betting markets have Trump up. Polymarket’s election forecast has Trump up 59.9% to Harris’ 40.1%. The forecast shows Trump up in every battleground state, and topping Harris by double-digit margins in Georgia and Arizona. Harris is favored to win the popular vote, according to Polymarket, up 69% compared to Trump’s 31%.

A report from Forbes, though, says there are positive signs for VP Harris and Democrats, too. Early voting for black Americans in Michigan, for example, is up 2.6% compared to 2020. While Harris is struggling to capture minority voters like past Democrats, she’s still predicted to have a significant lead.

Additionally, an estimated 12 million Americans have already cast their ballots in this year’s election, and according to data from TargetSmart, around 5.68 million Democrats have voted, compared to 4.35 million Republicans. About 2 million voters identified as “other” have cast their ballots as well.

Of course, it remains unclear how the trends will continue as we near Election Day.

Daniel Chaitin contributing to this report.

Related: Not Just The Betting Markets: Trump Takes Lead In Battleground State Polling