Supreme Court Ruling Against Trump Tariffs Could Trigger $1 Trillion Economic Disaster, Bessent Warns

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the U.S. could be on the hook for a staggering $1 trillion in tariff refunds if the Supreme Court sides against President Trump’s trade agenda — a decision that could cripple the Treasury and kneecap America’s economic leverage.

At the heart of the legal battle is the Trump administration’s broad use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), particularly the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” that have imposed sweeping levies on imports. Two lower courts have declared the tariffs unconstitutional, contending they overstepped executive authority and amounted to taxation without congressional approval.

Bessent made it clear: If the Supreme Court rules against the administration, the U.S. government will be forced to refund as much as $1 trillion to importers, a move he called “terrible” for the Treasury and the economy, the New York Post reported.

“We’d have to do it,” Bessent told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “But it would be terrible.”

According to court filings, the administration has already collected tens of billions in tariff revenue since Trump’s “Liberation Day” in April, with $30 billion in July alone, a 242% spike year-over-year. The total potentially owed could reach up to $1 trillion if the Supreme Court delays action.

Bessent did not mince words about the dangers of reversing the tariffs. “Unwinding them could cause significant disruption,” he said, emphasizing that economic benefits such as record stock market highs, increased capital expenditures, and strong GDP growth are largely due to the Trump tariff strategy.

Solicitor General D. John Sauer echoed Bessent, writing: “With tariffs, we are a rich nation; without tariffs, we are a poor nation… The economic consequences would be ruinous.”

Bessent was pressed repeatedly on “Meet the Press” on whether the administration would honor the court’s ruling if the tariffs were struck down.

“I mean, there’s no ‘be prepared,’” he said. “If the court says it, we’d have to do it.”

He cautioned that such a refund would not only harm the nation financially but also undermine the U.S. negotiating position globally, slow the progress made on rebalancing trade, and potentially reverse the economic momentum Trump has established.

Bessent dismissed complaints from corporations like John Deere and Nike, who blame the tariffs for profit losses and layoffs, calling them cherry-picked examples. He emphasized that Treasury is hearing a “record amount” of positive feedback from companies that support the tariffs.

Bessent rejected claims from Goldman Sachs and The New York Times that consumers are bearing the brunt, insisting that many foreign manufacturers are “eating the tariffs,” and that American economic strength is a direct result of the policy.

“This isn’t about the dollars,” Bessent said. “This is about balance. The dollars are an after amount.”

Bessent and President Trump see the court battle not just as a legal fight, but as a referendum on America’s right to defend its economic sovereignty.