Surprise! China’s future world dominance may not be in its own hands

A new research study has found surprising results – if the People’s Republic of China is unable to persuade its Southeast Asian neighbors to allow it to lead the region, global dominance will be a much harder task for China to achieve.

Researchers Selina Ho and Terence Lee from the National University of Singapore, conducted a survey of elites spread throughout Southeast Asian nations who were “least likely to acquiesce” to a China-led regional order. The survey gauged how they perceive China, its influence, and whether or not it has the authority to govern.

Results indicated that while China is viewed as influential by elites in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, most felt China did not have the authority to preside over the region, with the difference in political values being one of the biggest points of contention.

According to the study, China has often thought of Southeast Asia as its “periphery,” but has over time attempted to use its influence to shape the Sino-centric identity in the region – which would allow China to establish itself as a leading power in a hierarchy of its own making.

China wants to be a great power, and has ambitions of bringing the region to heel by shaping the foundations of regional identity, which researchers explain is similar to the U.S. in Latin America, Russia in Eastern Europe, and India in South Asia.

“They build their material capabilities and attempt to expel rival great powers, using institutions, culture, norms, and ideas to entrench their dominance. They are also likely to interfere in the domestic affairs and external policies of their neighbors to prevent rival powers from gaining a foothold in the region,” the study states.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, commonly known as ASEAN, includes the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei, Myanmar, and Malaysia. All have different cultural practices, religious views, and political discourse. Because of this, researchers state China will struggle to establish regional order without their backing.

In order to get the full support of the region, researchers suggest China must prove its ambitions are beneficial and legitimate, because China cannot be installed as a regional hegemon by force, it must be granted through negotiation.

China has already laid the foundation for its dominance around the globe through its various programs like the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative. These programs are mostly set up in developing countries, and don’t always benefit those receiving China’s “help.”

An example of this would be the recent inauguration of a new megaport built and owned by China and located in Lima, Peru. Locals say they have been squeezed out of their fishing grounds by China, while the majority of the city doesn’t have running water or sanitation.

Overall, 50.4% of ASEAN elites said ASEAN nations were the most influential in Southeast Asia, while 36.2% said China is the most influential, while only 9.6% see the U.S. as influential. The U.S. was unsurprisingly influential on Filipino elites, as the Philippines is a U.S. ally, and currently at odds with China over territory in the South China Sea.

A report from the Council on Foreign Relations warned China’s aggressive posturing and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on China could force some smaller nations in Southeast Asia and South Asia to choose between the two most powerful economies in the world.

The report states a survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a think tank based in Singapore, showed the majority of respondents from Southeast Asia preferred China over the U.S., thanks in part to President Joe Biden missing the East Asia Summit two years in a row, and not focusing on the region. This has forced smaller Asian nations to seek alliances outside of its region for defense and investment.

“Instead, they are building more robust ties with Asia’s major regional powers – most notably, a much more economically and strategically assertive Japan – but also with Australia, South Korea, the European Union (which is of course not in Asia but is playing a much bigger role there in recent years), and to some extent India, among others,” the report states.

However, tensions between China and the U.S. further deteriorated Monday, after U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin issued a warning over China’s actions in the South China Sea, particularly in regards to the Philippines.

While visiting the Philippine province of Palawan, Austin expressed his confidence the Trump administration will continue to support the U.S.-Philippine alliance, including $500 million in new military funding.

“We stand with the Philippines, and we condemn dangerous actions by the PRC against lawful Philippine operations in the South China Sea…The behavior of the PRC has been concerning. They’ve used dangerous and escalatory measures to enforce their expansive South China Sea maritime claims,” Austin said.

Meanwhile, Chinese news outlet the Global Times reported it is the U.S. who is militarizing the region, and escalating tensions. Ding Duo, a deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy at China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies, told the Global Times the military-intelligence deal further integrates U.S. military bases in the Philippines.

“We can predict that Manila will act as a primary information collector for the U.S. in the frontline of engaging with other countries in regions like the South China Sea,” Ding said.

The US has been promoting militarization in this region, and the Philippines – a nation that had fought for its national independence for many decades in history – continues to sacrifice its sovereignty and succumb to US interests now. It’s regrettable, a Chinese expert… pic.twitter.com/MJVvQ1fzsw

— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) November 18, 2024

Collin Koh, senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said on X the escalating tensions in the South China Sea are a direct result of China’s aggression toward the Philippines.

False narratives and unilateral actions have been the hallmarks of PRC behavior in SCS, especially in undermining PH legitimate sovereign rights in its EEZ. They’re the root causes of the spike in tensions that complicate the problem. https://t.co/mKSd9TQkC1

— Collin Koh (@CollinSLKoh) November 15, 2024