Swing-State Showcase: Everything You Need To Know About The Race In North Carolina

The winner of the 2024 presidential election is likely to be decided by a handful of swing states, including North Carolina.

The state’s 16 electoral votes could be vital to whichever candidate wins them, so here’s what you need to know about the state of the race.

Polling

Other than a brief moment after she launched her candidacy, Harris has lagged behind Trump in the Tar Heel state. The former president’s lead has widened over the past few weeks, and he currently has a 1.5% lead in North Carolina, according to Decision Desk.

Prior to Harris becoming the nominee, Trump looked to run away with the state, enjoying a 5-6% lead over President Joe Biden, according to RealClearPolitics.

How North Carolina Has Voted In The Past

North Carolina has been a reliably red state for 10 out of the past 12 elections, only voting Democrat in 1976 (Jimmy Carter) and 2008 (Barack Obama). The odds are in Trump’s favor, as the state voted for him in 2016 and 2020.

Trump won the state in 2016 with 173,315 more votes than Hillary Clinton, The New York Times reported,  getting 49.8% of the vote to Clinton’s 46.2%. Trump increased his vote share percentage in 2020 to 50.1%, but Biden narrowed Clinton’s loss to just 74,481 votes, or 48.7% of the vote, POLITICO reported, making North Carolina Trump’s narrowest victory of the election.

What The Candidates Are Saying

The Harris campaign has continued its national strategy in North Carolina, focusing on abortion and falsely claiming that Trump would sign a national abortion ban, an idea he has repeatedly disavowed. Harris has also claimed that Trump would cut taxes for billionaires while she would cut taxes for the middle class, even though her administration hasn’t done so. Trump’s administration did cut taxes for nearly all Americans, despite media claims otherwise. If Harris is referring to her plan to end taxes on tips, that is a plan she lifted from Trump.

Trump’s ads in the state have focused on Harris’s support for allowing illegal inmates in jail to receive taxpayer-funded sex changes.

What Early Voting Shows

North Carolina has seen an increase in early voting compared to 2016 and 2020. As of Thursday morning, more than 3.4 million people have voted in person, while another 190,000 have mailed in their ballots. At this point in 2020, 3.8 million people had voted early.

Of the ballots cast so far, 33.97% have been cast by registered Republicans and 32.68% have been cast by registered Democrats, with nearly 33% from unaffiliated voters.

When Can We Expect A Result?

Unlike other swing states, we shouldn’t have to wait days to know how North Carolina votes, Fox News reported. Each county counts its absentee ballots through the end of Election Day and uploads them to a central system, meaning that counties can turn in their vote totals much earlier than states that count absentee ballots after Election Day.

Jason Roberts, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina, told Fox that about 90% of ballots should be counted by midnight on Election Day, so the winner of the state should be determined then.

The only votes that won’t be counted at that time are provisional ballots that are counted after the election, such as overseas voters.

What Counties To Watch

There are three counties to watch in North Carolina: Mecklenburg, the metro area around Charlotte; Wake, the metro area around Raleigh; and New Hanover, which contains the port city of Wilmington.

Biden carried all three counties in 2020, increasing both Barack Obama’s 2012 and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 totals in Mecklenburg and Wake. In Mecklenburg, Obama won the county by more than 22% in 2012, while Biden won it by more than 35% in 2020, NewsNation reported.

New Hanover, however, typically votes Republican. The county swung for Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016, albeit by small margins. Biden won the county in 2020, even though Trump won the state. So, New Hanover will be a good bellwether for how the country may ultimately decide.

The problem for Republicans in the state is that, during the pandemic, many people from Blue states moved to North Carolina, and it remains to be seen whether they brought their failed political policies with them.

Voting Issues From 2020 To Now

Because North Carolina counts absentee ballots ahead of time, counting the votes was done on Election Day, without a prolonged count like in some swing states. The only slight controversy observed in 2020 was the disparity between polling, which showed Biden winning the state by a slim margin, and the actual results.

The North Carolina Supreme Court in 2023 upheld a law, previously struck down by a lower court, that requires voters to show ID when they go to the polls.

A lawsuit from the Republican National Committee attempting to remove 225,000 potentially ineligible voters from North Carolina’s voter rolls has failed ahead of the 2024 election, however. The RNC and the state Republican Party alleged in an August 23 complaint that North Carolina’s State Board of Elections had illegally registered “ineligible” voters, including potential non-citizens. The lawsuit was fought up to the Supreme Court, which dismissed Republicans’ claims under a federal law, but sent a separate state constitutional claim back to the lower court.

Other Races To Watch

Even though the state routinely votes Republican in presidential elections, it has voted for Democrat governors in nine out of the last 12 elections. It appears 2024 will also go in the Democrat’s favor, with Josh Stein up 14 percentage points over Republican candidate Mark Robinson. It does not appear that Robinson’s poor performance will be a drag on Trump in the state. Robinson has been blasted for his past statements saying he would ban abortion without exception, with ads featuring his comments playing almost around the clock.

Neither of North Carolina’s two senators is up for re-election this year, and all but one House race appears to be settled already. Don Davis (D-NC), serving his first term in office, is currently fighting for re-election against Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout. The district has a +1 Republican advantage and is largely rural outside of a couple of cities. Decision Desk still gives Davis a 76% chance to win the seat, thanks to the incumbent advantage. It remains to be seen what kind of help Harris or Trump could provide for their respective parties in this race.

Key Ballot Measures

There is only one ballot measure on the ticket in North Carolina for 2024: an amendment to the state constitution that would prohibit state and local governments from allowing noncitizens to vote.

The American Civil Liberties Union of North Carolina opposes the ballot, saying it is already against the law for non-citizens to vote. Supporters, however, say the measure would ensure that state courts and lawmakers didn’t encourage non-citizens to vote in state and local elections.