Swing-State Showcase: Everything You Need To Know About The Race In Wisconsin

Wisconsin was perhaps the most consequential swing state in 2016, and was decided in the past two presidential elections by razor-thin margins. This year doesn’t seem like it will be any different.

Here’s everything you need to know about Wisconsin.

Polling

Throughout August, Harris led Trump by as much as an average of five points before Trump started taking ground back in September and retook the lead in October. Trump currently leads Harris 48.8% to 48.2%, according to a DecisionDeskHQ average of 67 polls from Wisconsin. 

DecisionDesk HQ now projects Trump has a 55% chance of winning Wisconsin, a major reversal after Harris was given a 59% chance at the end of August. 

Trump winning Wisconsin would buck recent trends in the state, which Democrats won every year from 1988 until 2016. Before that, Republicans won Wisconsin in every presidential election but two from 1952 to 1984. 

The top issues for Wisconsin voters are the economy, immigration, and abortion. The most recent polling available from Marquette University Law School shows that 40% of voters said the economy was the most important, 15% said immigration and border security, and 12% said abortion. 

Trump is trusted by 51% of voters on the issues of immigration and the economy while Harris was trusted by just 36% of voters on those issues. On the issue of abortion, Harris was trusted by 53% of voters compared to the 30% of voters who trust Trump on the issue. 

What The Candidates Are Saying

Unlike Hillary Clinton’s notorious 2016 decision to skip campaigning in the Badger State, both Trump and Harris have campaigned heavily in the critical battleground. 

Trump has at least two major rallies planned in Wisconsin for the final week of the campaign. On Wednesday, Trump will take the stage alongside football legend Brett Favre for a rally in Green Bay. Then on Friday, Trump will head to the Democratic stronghold of Milwaukee — where he received the endorsement of the city’s police association — for another rally. 

On Monday, Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, spoke in both Wausau and Racine.

Harris has a rally scheduled at the University of Wisconsin in Madison on Wednesday, where she hopes to appeal to young voters through a joint appearance with Mumford & Sons. Earlier this month, Harris campaigned with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney in Brookfield. 

How Wisconsin Has Voted In The Past

In 2016, former President Donald Trump became the first Republican to carry Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan, winning the state by just over 20,000 votes. 

Four years later, Wisconsin swung for President Joe Biden, again by just 20,000 votes. This year’s race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is again expected to be determined by a razor-thin margin as polls indicate a statistically tied race to claim the state’s 10 electoral votes. 

What Early Voting Shows

Hundreds of thousands have already voted, with Wisconsin’s election commission reporting Friday that early voting had jumped almost 40% since the same time in 2020. As of Sunday, the commission reported that some 405,744 people had already voted early.

Around 108,213 early voters were reported in the Democratic strongholds of Dane and Milwaukee County. In Wisconsin’s traditionally Republican “WOW” counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington), around 86,244 people have voted early, according to election commission data.

Republicans need to perform well in the WOW counties in order to offset Democrats’ advantage in urban areas. Republicans will also need high turnout from the state’s rural counties.

When Can We Expect A Result?

In both 2016 and 2020, the results of Wisconsin’s presidential election were not known on Election Day. In 2016, the results were announced the morning after the election, while in 2020 the state was called for Biden after the election. Milwaukee and other cities have followed policies that require all ballots to be counted in one central area, which has caused delays in getting ballots counted in previous years. 

The 2024 results could see a similar timeline as 2020, but will likely not take as long as officials say it will in states like Arizona. 

Voting Issues From 2020 To Now

Election integrity was a major concern for Republicans in Wisconsin after widespread mail-in voting during the 2020 election.

One of the most contentious issues has been that of the use of drop boxes for ballots. In July 2022, the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that the use of drop boxes in 2020 violated the state constitution. However, the court reversed its decision in July after the liberal wing of the court took the majority earlier this year. 

The decision was celebrated by Democrats and decried by Republicans, who argued that the use of drop boxes would compromise election integrity.

Use of the drop boxes is reportedly down this year from 2024 with about just 78 in use compared to the 500 that were employed in 2020. Multiple cities and villages throughout the state have banned the use of drop boxes this time around after security concerns. 

“I think that a ballot drop box does create opportunity for those that want to circumvent the law,” Dodge County Sheriff Dale Schmidt said earlier this year. 

Wausau Mayor Doug Diny is under investigation by the Justice Department after he moved the city’s drop box into his office because of concerns that it was secured to the ground outside city hall. 

Mail-in voting has already come under scrutiny in Madison after 2,215 duplicate ballots were sent out to the heavily Democratic city. City officials said the incident was a “mistake” while Republicans demanded a more in-depth investigation. 

The DOJ has also taken action against the cities of Lawrence and Thornapple after they decided to only have paper ballots and cast them by hand. Federal officials accused the cities of discriminating against the disabled. Lawrence has agreed to use one electronic voting machine and a federal judge also placed an injunction this month against Thornapple.

Wisconsin’s Election Commission has been sued by the Public Interest Legal Foundation for records on the state’s voter registration process while another suit accuses the Milwaukee Election Commission of having 143,000 invalid voters on its rolls. 

In September, the Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty warned that there are 144,347 people in Wisconsin who do not have to show an ID to vote because they are classified as “indefinitely confined.” This status exploded during COVID when officials in Milwaukee and Madison said all voters could claim it, though the state Supreme Court later struck down this guidance. 

The Republican National Committee has already filed multiple lawsuits in the state as well, focusing on ensuring that cities hire an equal number of Republican poll workers and special voting deputies to administer elections at nursing homes. 

This time around there will be no private funding for elections, thanks to a Republican-backed measure that passed in April targeting “Zuckerbucks,” referring to Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s widespread funding of state elections in 2020. 

More than $10 million in Zuckerbucks was spent in Wisconsin during the 2020 election, according to the Foundation for Government Accountability. The FGA estimated that more than 80% of the funding went to areas Biden won by an average of 37 points. 

Other Races To Watch

Other key elections in Wisconsin include a contentious contest between Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde. Like Trump, Hovde has jumped in the polls in recent weeks, with polls showing the race within one or two points. 

November also marks the first election with new legislative maps ordered by the state’s liberal Supreme Court and signed by Democratic Governor Tony Evers. Democrats are looking to chip away at the Republican’s supermajority in the Senate and majority in the Assembly. 

Voters will also have the opportunity to pass an amendment to the state constitution that would ensure only American citizens are allowed to vote in national, state, and local elections.