The day after: What now for the Middle East?

JERUSALEM – Once the confirmation of Hezbollah leader’s Sayyid Hassan Nassrallah’s death was confirmed on Saturday, a wave of conflicting emotions and opinions were evident across the world, although most importantly and relevantly in the Middle East. The principal question of “what next?” was also very much to the fore.

In the all the brouhaha surrounding the death of an arch-terrorist, drug pusher and murderer – for what was Hezbollah if not a hugely powerful cartel – we should pause for a moment and understand just how extraordinary the last two weeks or so have been for Israel, Lebanon, and the entire Middle East.

With Hezbollah’s darkness fading, a renewed era dawns for the Middle East. We can now work together towards a brighter world where peace and justice are no longer dreams.

— Imam of Peace (@Imamofpeace) September 28, 2024

On Sept. 17, thousands of beepers in the hands of Hezbollah terrorists – mostly in Lebanon but also Syria – simultaneously detonated causing a range of wounds, from minor injuries to blindness, amputations, and even death. Attributed to Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency – although not officially confirmed – this operation set in motion the chain of events, which culminated in Nasrallah’s demise.

If the so-called “Grim Beeper operation” did not seem extraordinary enough, it was followed a day later with similar explosions in the walkie-talkies and other electronic devices of Hezbollah operatives. In both instances, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders were also hit, highlighting the level of coordination between a state actor, Iran, and a lethal non-state actor, such as Hezbollah.

It rocked the terrorist proxy on its heels, and one can only imagine the amount of confusion and suspicion, which emanated from such an attack. The organization shifted to pagers and walkie-talkies for fear of Israeli intelligence intercepting cell phone calls – and then the lower-tech option was used as a weapon against them.

The distrust Hezbollah and IRGC kingpins had of their electronic communications forced them to meet – like mafia dons – in person, to try and thrash out a response to Israel’s intelligence successes. It would prove their downfall, as Israel either gained or already had significant and accurate intel about Hezbollah’s leaders, up to and including Nasrallah.

He personally must have felt in the last two weeks it was just a matter of time until his number came up. And here’s the thing, there was no unanimity within Israel’s cabinet as to the decision to take him out. Even a figure such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, no Arab-lover, was reportedly somewhat uneasy about eliminating Nasrallah, presumably fearful – and correctly so – of the reprisals that might emanate from this action.

What has been clear for the last two weeks is just how compromised Hezbollah’s internal security has become. From an outsider’s perspective it doesn’t seem possible to achieve the extent of the disruption Israel has caused without a level of superior intelligence, including infiltrating deeply into Hezbollah’s organizational structure.

It’s important to also point out the role the IDF’s Northern Command has played in tandem with the intelligence services. Since Oct. 8, when Hezbollah decided to join in a somewhat limited way Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s so-called “Al-Aqsa flood” operation, the IDF, while concentrating largely on Gaza and the need to dismantle terrorist battalions there, did not neglect the northern arena.

Even before the operations of the last two weeks, Israel’s military eliminated some 450 Hezbollah and IRGC operatives, including senior field commanders with significant battlefield experience. The Israeli Air Force also worked to hit the supply lines carrying materiel from Iran or Iranian-aligned proxies in Iraq or Syria to be closer to the Lebanese front.

What can be seen from the reactions to Nasrallah’s demise is an odd alignment of people – commentators, so-called journalists, and politicians – who decry Israel’s actions labeling it “an escalation,” conveniently forgetting the thousands of rockets fired at the country’s north and the tens of thousands of displaced citizens because of it. There is a certain level of myopia and cravenness, which allowed the Associated Press to label Nasrallah as “charismatic and shrewd.” It brings to mind the Washington Post’s description of Abu Bakr al-Baghdai as an “austere religious scholar.” (The Post followed that up with labeling Nasrallah a “father figure, and moral compass.”)

The fawning over honest-to-goodness murderers, thieves, and terrorists, is a sickness the West is having a hard time dealing with. For its own long-term survival it would do well to drop the suicidal empathy, which permits formerly respected news institutions – among others – to wax lyrical about some truly terrible human beings.

And the @washingtonpost, which once infamously described the leader of ISIS as an “austere religious figure”, is true to form here, calling #Nasrallah “a father figure, a moral compass.” pic.twitter.com/T4o0kjTsQV

— Arsen Ostrovsky ️ (@Ostrov_A) September 28, 2024

Let us recall, also, those civilians were not just evacuated because of the rockets, but for fears, subsequently confirmed, which showed Hezbollah’s powerful Radwan force was planning an Oct. 7-style attack on the Galilee. Although the terrain is much craggier and difficult along the Israel-Lebanon border, a remnant of distant tectonic shifts in the Great Syrian-African Rift than the sand dunes along the Mediterranean coast, it is well-known Hezbollah invested huge sums in creating cross-border attack tunnels.

However, for millions of Middle Easterners, Syrians, Iraqis, and Lebanese – the people who witnessed and suffered from Hezbollah’s brutality – let’s call it their lived experience – were exultant at the news of Nasrallah’s demise. A feeling of hope has begun to germinate, a tiny flame radiating some light and a sense of opportunity, a belief that a fog has been lifted.

Jared Kushner, former President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, and a person who was intimately involved in jettisoning the assumptions of the past and looking at the Middle East anew, posted a rare comment on X. He wrote: “Sept. 27 is the most important day in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords breakthrough.”

September 27th is the most important day in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords breakthrough.

I have spent countless hours studying Hezbollah and there is not an expert on earth who thought that what Israel has done to decapitate and degrade them was possible.

This is…

— Jared Kushner (@jaredkushner) September 29, 2024

Kushner was also perfectly blunt in his assessment of the mealy-mouthed and cowardly stance of the Biden-Harris administration in general, and the U.S. State Department in particular: “Anyone who has been calling for a ceasefire in the North is wrong. There is no going back for Israel. They cannot afford now to not finish the job and completely dismantle the arsenal that has been aimed at them. They will never get another chance.”

There are still many unanswered questions and several imponderables. Will Lebanon be allowed to coalesce around some unity figures so the country can remove itself from the grip of Shia terrorists who wish to lead it down the path to hell? What will Iran and its proxies’ response be?

The Houthi already fired a ballistic missile Saturday toward Ben Gurion International Airport near Lod – ironically a significantly mixed Jewish and Arab city. Will Israel perform a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon to drive Hezbollah operatives – and their missiles – back over the Litani river and farther away from Israel’s population centers (although some of their ordnance has a range of several hundreds kilometers, bringing the entire country into range)?

Outside of the immediate reality of the Middle East, what will be with the relationship between the United States and Israel? There were reports, similar to other operations the Jewish state has carried out, it neither sought permission nor informed U.S. officials until the planes were already in the air to destroy Hezbollah’s underground HQ.

Two simultaneous things seem to be at work; the first is there is a frosty relationship (at best) between Israel’s leaders – particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – and the Biden administration, including the titular head of that government President Joe Biden, and the U.S. State Department. What is an ally to make of the situation when the sitting president has been reduced, due to the machinations and needs of his own political party, to a bit-part player? Biden is the lamest of lame ducks; a person whom we know is propped up by an avaricious and grasping wife, and a party that cannot 25th Amendment him, for fear his failings will be too closely associated with his anointed successor, Vice President Kamala Harris.

In addition to the cooling of personal relations, there is also very clear a lack of trust between Israel’s defense establishment and its U.S. counterparts – and with good reason. Too often plans have either been leaked or telegraphed, and at times the Biden administration has brought undue pressure to bear on its ally, rather than the genocidal terrorists arrayed against it.

The same thing happened right before the strike that knocked out the head of Hezbollah. Perhaps the U.S. and France heard some chatter about a potential attempt on Nasrallha’s life; perhaps they put two and two together, assuming if Israel was going after Hezbollah’s top-most leadership, Nasrallah would be the ace in the pack, even if they were not sure Israel would assuredly go for it. It did, and it’s conducting operations, which provide hope for millions in the Middle East, unconstrained by American timidity.