The Fog Of Trump: How Unpredictability Keeps Iran Guessing

When Iranian airspace closed on Wednesday night, it seemed like an American attack was imminent.

Some military assets moved, American bases had degrees of evacuations, and tension spiked. But the attack never came.

Experts now warn that this is not an end to the standoff, but a strategic maneuver in what they call the “fog of Trump” — the president’s typical unpredictability, which leaves both allies and adversaries scrambling to guess his next move.

According to Jonathan Schanzer, the Executive Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, it is clear that things were happening Wednesday night, but something changed.

“The bottom line is, it appears that Trump had made a decision, reversed his decision, and may yet reverse it again,” Schanzer told The Daily Wire, “This is the fog of Trump, not the fog of war. Everything appeared to be moving toward an operation, and then that operation was apparently called off. What happens next is a big question.”

Earlier on Wednesday, Trump shifted his tone regarding the Iranian regime. He had previously threatened to strike if protesters were killed, but stated from the Oval Office that he believed the “killings in Iran have stopped.” Many observers saw this as part of Trump’s strategy to add confusion ahead of a potential strike. He reiterated this stance Thursday morning, while still leaving the possibility of action on the table.

“I’m not going to tell you that,” he said when NBC News asked if he had ruled out military intervention.

Some have suggested that Trump was testing Iran’s readiness by observing how they reacted to what appeared to be preparations for an American strike.

Al Jazeera reported that Trump communicated to Iran that he is not planning to strike, while Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-GA) said that the question isn’t whether the operation will happen, but whether it “should be bigger or smaller.”

There are missed signals, and according to Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran, that is precisely the point.

“I think what you have seen over the last few days has been a concerted psyop, or psychological operation, that has been meant to confuse the decision-making of the Islamic Republic of Iran while the U.S. prepares for a military strike and moves assets into place,” Brodsky told The Daily Wire.

Both Brodsky and Schanzer point to the importance of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group reportedly moving from the South China Sea to the Middle East, a voyage that will take about a week.

“I think that the most important data point that we received over the last 24 hours has been the U.S. moving the USS Abraham Lincoln from the South China Sea into the CENTCOM theater,” Brodsky said. “I think President Trump likes to keep all options open, but I think that they’re laying the groundwork for the eventuality of potential military action.

During the 12-Day war between Israel and Iran over the summer, Trump was also mulling striking Iran and suggested he would make his decision “within the next two weeks” before striking Iranian nuclear sites just a few days later.

“I think we saw this kind of mixed messaging before the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program during the 12-Day War and it was part of a concerted effort, reportedly, to throw off the Iranians,” Brodsky said. “That kind of veering and mixed messaging is part of the strategy.”

There are reports that Arab nations and Israel urged Trump to exercise caution. The Arab states reportedly asked him not to attack Iran, while Israel requested a temporary delay on a strike.

According to the New York Times, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested that Trump postpone plans to strike Iran. Some have suggested the request was driven by the need for Israel to ready itself in case the regime responded to American action by striking the Jewish state. On Wednesday, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin confirmed that the IDF is on full alert and taking steps to strengthen its defensive readiness.

“The region is on high alert,” Schanzer said. “The Israelis are preparing for a potential onslaught of ballistic missiles from the Iranian regime. This has been the threat—that if the U.S. attacks, then the Israelis will take the brunt of it.”

So far, the Iranian regime has threatened to attack American bases in the Middle East if Trump decides to attack.

Schanzer emphasized that the situation is far from over. He noted that Trump is operating with “maximum flexibility” while weighing risks and seeking the best outcome from his advisors.

“I think something can very easily still happen,” he said. “The easiest thing to do would be to take out the tech that has halted the flow of information with the 8-day internet blackout. You could allow the Iranians to begin to communicate freely with themselves and with the rest of the world; that’s an important step.”

He added that cyber, economic, and diplomatic options are on the table.

On Thursday morning, the Treasury Department announced a new round of sanctions targeting the Iranian regime in response to its ongoing crackdown on protesters. The sanctions designate several senior Iranian security officials responsible for directing the regime’s bloody response to demonstrators, including: Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security, Mohammad Reza Hashemifar, commander of the Law Enforcement Forces in Lorestan Province, and others.

Regardless of what move Trump decides to take, Brodsky says Trump showed unprecedented support to Iranians by speaking out against the regime and encouraging Iranians to keep protesting and take over their institutions, and that help is coming.

“The president has gone further than any American president in history by being on the side of the Iranian people,” he said. “I think that there is a need to demonstrate how help is coming, and I think that the president and his team know that. It’s just very important that we follow through.”