The specter of Iran’s collapse grows ever closer

The fear of escalating attacks between Iran and Israel – and of dragging Iran into a war that the people do not want – has created divisions at the top of the Iranian regime. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is becoming increasingly isolated among the clergy and within his own inner circles.

Recently, a group of seminary instructors petitioned Ayatollah Arafi, director of the religious seminaries, to revoke the teaching licenses of members of a group called the Association of Seminary Researchers and Teachers for trying to achieve peace with Israel.

“With great regret and sorrow,” they wrote, “the deviant Association of Researchers and Teachers of the Qom Seminary has, in defiance of the consensus among all prominent religious scholars, recognized the usurping Zionist regime and, in their view, proposed a solution for peace.” Clerics in the group believe Israel should be recognized as a state, unlike Khamenei, who believes that Israel should be destroyed. The clerics in the Researchers and Teachers group support the coexistence of two independent states, Palestine and Israel, side by side.

Thus, the dark outlook facing the Iranian regime has led many within its ranks to distance themselves, anticipating a potential collapse. The recognition of Israel and Palestine as neighboring states would undermine the regime’s four-decade-old slogan of “Death to Israel,” which has been used to create an external enemy and mask internal repression to ensure its own survival.

According to revelations by the National Council of Resistance of Iran, a democratic alternative to the regime, around 5,000 people are currently on death row in Iranian prisons. This regime orchestrated the largest mass execution of political prisoners since World War II, with 30,000 prisoners massacred in just two months in 1988. The religious dictatorship holds the world’s highest rate of executions per capita, accounting for 74% of all recorded executions worldwide last year. Since the new president took office, there have been over 359 executions.

The misogynistic nature of the regime is further demonstrated by its brutal suppression of popular protests, which resulted in at least 1,500 young people killed during the November 2018 uprising and at least 750 during the 2022 unrest.

Warmongering as a shield for the regime

Khamenei has declared, “If [our proxies in Syria] did not fight, the enemy would come into the country. … If they were not stopped, we would have to fight them here, in Tehran, Kermanshah, Hamedan, and other provinces.” The regime’s officials are not merely concerned that a few potential Israeli strikes could topple the dictatorship, but also fear that the resulting instability could ignite a nationwide uprising.

What sets the current situation apart from previous uprisings is that this time, thousands of resistance units, inspired by the 10-point plan of Maryam Rajavi, leader of the Iranian opposition, are prepared to transform any spark into a blaze, driving it toward a decisive victory. This plan emphasizes, among other things, gender equality and an Iran free of executions and nuclear weapons. In this context, the specter of war indeed embodies the regime’s looming collapse.

The regime’s reliance on warmongering has long served as a cover for its widespread suppression of resistance. Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, even described war as a “divine blessing.” The regime’s survival has always depended on a combination of internal repression and external conflict, often conducted through proxies like Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Hashd al-Shaabi militias in Iraq. However, with these proxy forces weakened, Iran is losing a crucial pillar of its strategy for survival, bringing the specter of collapse ever closer.

Over a year after the outbreak of war in the Middle East, there is no longer any doubt that the religious dictator has been a primary instigator and key player in the tragedy that has engulfed the region. Recent events support the Iranian resistance’s argument that as long as this regime remains in power, war and terrorism will persist in the region. Recognizing the struggle of the Iranian people against the regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is essential for establishing peace and stability in both the region and the world.