The Trump Effect: How the election of an American president might reshape Mideast

JERUSALEM – Donald Trump was elected 47th president of the United States fewer than seven days ago, yet the Middle East has witnessed a palpable shift in energy and momentum, the moment his victory was all-but-confirmed.

Almost immediately, a foreign policy, which has seemed confused and untethered – remember Joe Biden’s multiple “don’t” warnings – and which precisely nobody took seriously – now seems tautened and focused. America’s returning 45th president hasn’t even assembled his team, nor gotten his feet back underneath the Resolute Desk, and yet the alleged unpredictability which was supposed to endanger the world, has instead concentrated minds in many arenas across the Middle East.

Qatar only ever “mediated” to keep Hamas in power. Qatar is not an ally of the west. It is its enemy. The US should remove Qatar’s ally status, move its military base to the UAE, take financial steps against Qatar, and close down its ability to contribute to American…

— Dr. Einat Wilf (@EinatWilf) November 9, 2024

One of the first countries to step into line following Trump’s election was Qatar. As early as Nov. 8, there were reports Doha told Hamas leaders currently leading a gilded life under its protection in some of the capital’s swankiest hotels, to pack their bags and seek accommodation in whatever country will take them. There was not a hint of this pressure under the Biden administration.

Outgoing Secretary of State Anthony Blinken did not sit down with Qatar’s Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani and give him some kind of ultimatum. And here’s the thing, Trump didn’t even need to say anything. People in the Middle East know he’s back and that he has unfinished business. Qatar’s cozy relationship with Iran might be another reason its government acted preemptively to cut off the largesse to those terrorist leaders to whom it has given its hospitality.

Hamas leaders have resided in Doha since 2012 (at then-President Barack Obama’s urging), at a time when the now-eliminated Yahya Sinwar had only recently been released from an Israeli jail in 2011, and overall it was a much weaker organization, and they were personally much poorer. It is not in the scope of this article to draw a line between the Hamas leadership’s presence in Doha, and their bank accounts, which now show several noughts on the credit side of the ledger – but we can be fairly certain a causal link exists.

So how did it happen that a favored U.S. non-NATO ally was the recipient of the privilege of hosting the largest Middle Eastern air expeditionary force, but at the same time was a conduit for the Hamas terrorists in Gaza to vastly improve its training, weaponry, and rocket arsenals? Sure, Iran was intimately involved, in terms of men, materiel, and funding, but its close neighbor and ally, Qatar, seemed to be in lockstep all the way.

Show of hands:

How many of you knew that it was Barack Obama and his administration who pushed for and helped Hamas relocate their political bureau and leadership to Doha in Qatar in 2012? That’s how Hamas ended up there. And Biden has done everything possible to keep them safe…

— Cheryl E ️ (@CherylWroteIt) November 9, 2024

Qatar has also reportedly stated it will no longer play a role in mediation between Israel and Hamas, ironically in the immediate wake of another Hamas rejection of a ceasefire proposal. It is worth stepping back for a moment and asking how and why a terrorist group such as Gaza’s rulers, which has witnessed a significant attenuation of its fighting forces, and like its cousin over the northern border Hezbollah, has had to deal with the decapitation of its upper echelons, and which sees the devastation daily it has wrought on its people, still will not come to the negotiating table – or even offer any hostages as a goodwill gesture?

What role has Doha played in this intransigence? Is Doha now hedging its bets because Trump and his team are a mere 70 or so days away from returning to the White House? Let’s take a moment to acknowledge just how weaselly this position actually is. Qatar has not ruled out aiding in the mediation efforts, but the parties need to demonstrate “willingness to re-engage.” This sounds rather like using the hostages – at least those who are still alive – who have suffered for 400 days in Hamas captivity as bargaining chips.

This episode has shown the Obama doctrine – of appeasing Arab and Persian sensibilities – to create a bulwark against Israel – as truly deceitful and morally bankrupt. The payback for Hamas being in Qatar was to enable a sense of calm between the terrorist group and Israel.

The “thinking,” or so the logic went, was Hamas would be less likely to attack Israel if its civil servants’ salaries were paid on time and its leadership had a place of sanctuary. And yet, rather than diluting Hamas’ fury amid economic prosperity, it turbo-charged it instead. Hamas was given succor in Qatar, and its forces – and thousands of helpers – carried out the worst massacre of Jews in more than 80 years. And from a country – given the World Cup in 2022, and selected at the same time as that other bastion of democracy, Russia, which hosted the 2018 competition – which is supposed to be a major Western ally. In retrospect, those particular figures just do not add up.

Qatar has played a similar role with Taliban-run Afghanistan. It has hosted leaders from this quasi medieval group and also positioned itself as an honest broker between the United States and the Taliban. Having performed this role, Afghanistan’s female population of some 19 million women and girls is now barely above the level of chattel. It’s odd, Qatar offers itself as an “honest broker,” and yet, it’s always the ultra-conservative – and presumably not coincidentally ultra-violent Islamic groups – which seem to get the better of the exchanges.

Doha is trying to position itself as an indispensable piece of the Middle Eastern jigsaw; it is likely using the threat of pulling out of its mediation role to see which way Israel and the United States will move. Trump has made it clear he would like to see an end to the Gaza fighting by the time he gets into office; perhaps this latest chapter is Qatar’s way of attempting to get the best deal possible (in the long run) for its Hamas allies.