Trump numbers show how GOP went wrong on immigration

The Republican Party had something of a nervous breakdown after the 2012 election, when GOP challenger Mitt Romney lost to incumbent President Barack Obama. Some Republicans had convinced themselves that the multitude of polls showing Obama ahead were “skewed.” Many actually expected a Romney victory. When that didn’t happen, they looked for reasons.

They could have looked at Obama’s job approval rating – 52% in Gallup on Election Day – or the power of incumbency that Obama used to its fullest extent. Instead, Republicans focused on the Hispanic vote. Romney lost it big time, winning just 27% of Latino voters to Obama’s 71%. GOP strategists were deeply affected by Democrats’ predictions that Hispanic Americans – the only voting group actually growing by significant amounts – would give the Democratic Party a lock on the presidency in the future. So, after Romney’s defeat, they set themselves to the task of winning more Latino voters.

The Republican National Committee did a study of Romney’s defeat. The resulting report was called the Growth and Opportunity Project – G-O-P, right? – but was universally known as the “autopsy.” Going in, Republican officials said the autopsy would not make recommendations on policy but rather explore GOP deficiencies in things like voter contact, outreach, turnout, advertising and the like. Then they decided to make one exception to the no-policy rule.

“We are not a policy committee, but among the steps Republicans take in the Hispanic community and beyond, we must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform,” the report said. “If we do not, our party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.” And thus, the RNC, the Republican Party establishment, hoping to improve its appeal to Hispanic voters, dedicated itself to passing comprehensive immigration reform.

In the year after the election, 2013, the GOP establishment supported a major effort to pass a sprawling immigration reform bill known by the name of the group that drafted it, the Gang of Eight. It passed the Democratic-controlled Senate but died in the Republican-controlled House.

That is where things stood when Donald Trump entered the presidential scene in 2015, pushing the absolute opposite of comprehensive immigration reform. Trump’s best-known position on immigration, indeed his best-known position overall, was his proposal to build a border wall. Beyond that, Trump sought to use the powers of the executive branch to stem the flow of illegal crossers over the U.S.-Mexico border. Taken together, his actions created a powerful disincentive for people to attempt to enter the U.S. illegally, and the numbers of illegal crossers went down.

Here’s the thing: Trump’s support among Hispanic voters went up. Just a little bit in the 2016 election – Trump received 28% of the Latino vote to Romney’s 27%. But then, in 2020, after President Trump had been in office four years, he won 38% of the Hispanic vote in his reelection attempt.

Now, with another election approaching, there is a new NBC/Telemundo poll showing Trump at 40% with Latino voters to 54% for Vice President Kamala Harris. If the election were held today, and if the poll is accurate, Trump is headed toward the best Republican performance among Latino voters in more than four decades. It would be equaled only by George W. Bush’s winning 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, which has stood as the Republican high mark of Latino support going back at least as far as 1980.

How did Trump increase Latino support when the Republican Party failed for so many years? The biggest reason is that he treated Hispanic voters like other voters. In general, they’re worried about the same issues everyone else is. The new poll shows that Latino voters listed the cost of living as the most important issue facing the country. And those same voters said Trump would better handle the cost-of-living issue than Harris by a margin of 46% to 37%. Latino voters listed jobs and the economy, separate from inflation, as their next-most important issue. And they thought Trump would better handle that, too, by 45% to 41%.

Not far away was the issue of immigration and the situation at the border. Hispanic voters rated it among their top issues, and they thought Trump would better handle it by a 47% to 34% margin. It was Trump’s biggest margin on any issue. Some, perhaps consumers of pro-Democratic news outlets, might find that surprising. But it should not surprise anyone to find that Hispanic voters support a secure border just like other Americans, and, also like everyone else, that they have seen what the Biden-Harris administration has done on the border in the last four years.

The NBC/Telemundo poll showed Trump particularly strong with Hispanic voters under 50 years of age. Among men in that group, Trump actually leads Harris. He’s also strong with Latino men in general and voters without college degrees. These are the kind of divides we see in the electorate at large.

Of course, it’s important to remember that Harris still leads Trump among Hispanic voters, just as earlier Democrats led in past campaigns. But if she is to win, Harris will need high levels of support from minority voters. Right now, she doesn’t appear to be getting it from Hispanic voters.

It’s a long way from 2012 and the GOP autopsy. If Trump does indeed perform well with Latino voters in the final election results, it would be worthwhile for some Republican Party leaders, past and present, to ask themselves: What did he get right in appealing to Latino voters that we got so wrong?