4 Times Mike Johnson Has Beaten the Odds

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has consistently beaten the odds throughout the first five months of the 119th Congress, settling seemingly irreconcilable disagreements within the fractious House Republican Conference to advance President Donald Trump’s highest priorities.

And Johnson, R-La., hasn’t forgotten to remind the public.

“I know some of y’all smiled and probably mocked me a little bit when I said early on we were going to do this by Memorial Day,” the Louisiana lawmaker told reporters Thursday after passing the budget reconciliation bill through the House.

To be sure, the House of Representatives has not delivered a major piece of legislation to the president’s desk so far, nor has it codified any of the president’s major executive orders, with the exception of approving the official renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to “the Gulf of America.”

But Johnson, whose gavel was at risk in January at the start of the new Congress, has proven himself capable of herding his caucus at the most important moments.

1. Holding Onto His Gavel

After being somewhat of a divisive figure in the 118th Congress, Johnson’s first fight in the House in early January at the opening of the 119th Congress was to persuade his party to back him almost unanimously to be speaker again.

Three Republican representatives—Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Keith Self of Texas, and Thomas Massie of Kentucky—voted against him in the first round of votes. 

Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, was considered a possible “no” vote against Johnson but ended up voting for the Louisiana Republican.

But through negotiations on the floor, as well as by calling in the president to speak with GOP members, Johnson was able to hold on to his gavel as he won over holdouts.

Trump played a hands-on role in it as well, calling Norman and Self from a golf course to persuade them that Johnson was the right man for the gavel. 

2. Continuing Resolution

One of Johnson’s earliest tests was passing a continuing resolution to continue spending levels from former President Joe Biden’s term and prevent a government shutdown.

Given Republicans’ reluctance to continue Biden’s policies—especially amid early excitement over the Department of Government Efficiency—winning over conservatives to vote for a continuing resolution was no easy task.

But Johnson was able to win over unlikely allies to this effort. House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris, R-Md., even joined Johnson at a press conference to argue for the stopgap funding bill as a way to sustain Trump’s and DOGE’s momentum.

It ultimately passed 217-213, with Massie as the only Republican voting against it. Rep. Jared Golden of Maine was the only Democrat to vote for it.

3. Senate Budget Plan

After Trump gave his endorsement to the Senate’s budget resolution in April, Johnson was forced to win over fiscal conservatives to vote for a plan that many of them felt was inadequate in terms of spending-cut targets.

Johnson accomplished that primarily by persuading the fiscal hawks that the budget plan—a necessary first step before budget reconciliation—was not something to fret over in the grand scheme of things.

Asked at the time what his case to these holdouts was, Johnson said, “Look, the resolution is not the law itself. The resolution continues the process; it’s a necessary step. So, the real deliberation and the consensus has to be built around the bill itself, and that’s what I’ve told everybody.”

Johnson won over every member of his party except for Massie and Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana.

In Roy’s telling, Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., made promises to him that the eventual budget reconciliation would include major spending cuts and reforms of Biden-era green energy subsidies and Medicaid expansion.

Johnson also reportedly told the fiscal hawks that they could vote him out as speaker if he didn’t stay true to his promises of fiscal conservatism in the bill, according to Politico.

4. Reconciling SALT and the Freedom Caucus

Johnson’s most recent triumph was winning the vote of holdouts from two stubborn factions—advocates of a higher cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions on federal taxes and members of the House Freedom Caucus.

A SALT deduction allows residents in high-tax states to deduct their state and local taxes on their federal tax returns. Under Trump’s first-term 2017 tax cuts—which are set to expire at the end of the year—taxpayers can deduct up to $10,000 on their returns under SALT.

Johnson at first offered this group of blue state Republicans a $30,000 cap, which most of them rejected as insufficient.

 However, on Tuesday night—barely over a day before the reconciliation floor vote, Johnson was able to satisfy the SALT advocates with a $40,000 cap with limitations on income levels for those eligible for the deduction.

That’s an extremely generous offer that quadruples the SALT deduction, but one that might not stand once it goes to the Senate. 

But Johnson’s real triumph came in managing to win over Freedom Caucus’ fiscal conservatives after appeasing the SALT caucus. 

On Wednesday morning, the final day of negotiations, Harris said, “I think actually we’re further away from a deal, because that SALT cap increase, I think, upset a lot of conservatives.”

Nevertheless, Johnson was able to win over the Freedom Caucus members by bringing the bill to the floor for consideration Wednesday night and coordinating with the White House to persuade the holdouts.

Johnson also released a final draft from the House Rules Committee that included key concessions to the Freedom Caucus, such as earlier implementation of Medicaid work requirements (2026 rather than 2029), and an earlier expiration of Biden’s green energy tax credits.

The result was an odds-defying triumph for House leadership, as only two Republicans, Massie and Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, voted against the bill. Harris voted “present.”

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