Achieving Sea Superiority Through AUKUS

Whoever rules the waves rules the world. This argument, made famous by American naval theorist Alfred Thayer Mahan, rings just as true today as it did over a century ago. But today, the contest for maritime dominance is no longer just about destroyers and battleships—it’s about data, autonomy, and dominance beneath the surface. 

In the Indo-Pacific, the race for undersea superiority is already well underway.  

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has realized this and, in turn, has developed Chinese naval 5C-ISR capabilities—the integrated systems of command, control, communications, computers, cyber, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance that determine the effectiveness of a military.  

One of the best avenues for developing American and allied capabilities in this domain is through AUKUS, a trilateral security arrangement between the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. Announced in September 2021, this alliance seeks to rapidly expand their combined capabilities through coordination on programs such as building nuclear submarines or advanced quantum computing.  

Two central pillars form the nucleus of this landmark treaty. 

Pillar I revolves around the purchase of American nuclear-powered attack submarines by Australia. 

Pillar II seeks to improve interoperability around the key areas that define the warfare of the future—a function that’s far less discussed, but which could significantly expand our joint military capabilities. 

Already, cooperation in eight working groups has yielded fruitful results, making huge gains in joint AI systems such as the Resilient and Autonomous Artificial Intelligence Technology and in the Hypersonic Flight Test and Experimentation program. 

One of these working groups focuses on the development of undersea capabilities—a functionality that will prove essential in sustaining undersea superiority, particularly as China rapidly advances in the same domain. 

Recognizing that its ambitions toward Taiwan can only be achieved by naval power, Beijing is poised to invest $1.4 trillion into its navy through 2028. It has also taken steps to expand its total naval personnel to almost 384,000, larger than the U.S. total of around 336,978.  

Alongside these developments, China is rapidly developing its own undersea capabilities. 

It’s already in the process of forming what Beijing calls an “Underwater Great Wall” in the South China Sea, fielding drone-based anti-submarine quantum sensors, seabed-based warfare sensors, and submarine-based air-detecting radars, all while developing extra-large underwater drones faster than the U.S. can develop and implement comparable technologies. 

These technologies present a significant threat to U.S. warfighting capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, and they could enable China to attack U.S. naval vessels, interdict U.S. trade, and disrupt U.S. supply lines.  

Developing the capabilities to counter these technologies—and indeed, deploy them ourselves—should be an immediate goal of the American and Australian navies. 

While the U.S. has already made some advancements on that front, joint prototyping of autonomous undersea vehicles, testing AI-enabled sonar and navigation systems, and conducting multilateral unmanned maritime exercises is not enough. 

Instead, AUKUS must also rely more heavily on the power of the private sector.  

While this exists in some form through the AUKUS Maritime Innovation Challenge (a trilateral defense technology competition), AUKUS must also look to new solutions, like an AUKUS Center for Experimentation, where allies could collaborate on defense technology and conduct testing in-theater in Australia.  

The U.S. could also build on the progress already made by AUKUS by expanding Pillar II to other countries.  

Comparable Pillar II initiatives that advance allied cooperation already exist between several allies and partners—see, for example, the U.S.-Japan joint hypersonics development program, or the intelligence sharing between the U.S. and the Philippines. Encompassing similar efforts within Pillar II is perhaps the most logical solution to securing sea superiority in the Indo-Pacific in the short term. 

The U.S. must not allow China to continue to outpace our gains in naval warfare. By building on Pillar II of AUKUS, we can prevent that from happening by instead enabling our military, along with our allies and partners, to accelerate the development of next-generation capabilities. 

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