Beijing Ramps Up Military Activity Around Taiwan, But ‘China Won’t Invade,’ Expert Says

China is ramping up its military preparations for a conflict against Taiwan, the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command says.  

Adm. Samuel J. Paparo spoke Friday at a conference at the McCain Institute in Arizona and referred to China being in a “rapid boil,” according to The Washington Times.  

“You know the metaphor of boiling the frog. Well, it’s a rapid boil. We notice quick change,” Paparo said.  

In April, China conducted two days of war games to practice various military maneuvers around Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party has repeatedly warned Taipei against seeking full independence from China.  

The Times reports that in 2021, China “held a single brigade exercise near Taiwan and followed it with a six-brigade drill in 2022 and a 42-brigade exercise in 2024.”  

While China has increased military drills and warnings to Taiwan, Heritage Foundation China research fellow Michael Cunningham argues tha war between China and Taiwan is very unlikely. 

“No, China won’t invade Taiwan,” Cunningham told The Daily Signal.  

“The prospect of war over Taiwan is even scarier for Beijing than it is for Washington, and the only scenarios I can imagine in which China would attack Taiwan would be if Taiwan declared formal independence—which Taiwan’s constitution makes virtually impossible—or if the U.S. established diplomatic relations or signed a formal defense treaty with Taiwan,” the Heritage expert said.  

If Taiwan did declare independence from China, or if the U.S. established formal diplomatic ties with Taipei, such an action would likely “trigger” a military response from China and “lead [Chinese President] Xi Jinping to conclude that he must act to preserve his legitimacy as China’s leader,” Cunningham said.

But apart from such developments, the policy expert says, “China’s leaders can’t afford to attempt to take Taiwan by force unless they’re convinced they can win at a politically acceptable cost, and Xi and the rest of the leadership don’t believe there is a path for such a low-risk victory.” 

Even if China succeeded in an invasion of Taiwan, such a conflict would create “social and economic havoc” in China, Cunningham said, adding that a conflict could even jeopardize the CCP’s control of China.

The reason China is using intimidation tactics and increasing military exercises around Taiwan is part of a strategy to “wear down America’s support for the island and divide Taiwan’s own population so that it can eventually take the island without a major military operation,” he explained.

The “strategy appears to be working,” he added. 

“The more convinced Americans become that a Chinese attack on Taiwan isn’t a matter of if but when, the more worried people become that continued support for Taiwan will get us dragged into a war with China,” Cunningham said.  

If the U.S. decides it is not in its interest to defend Taiwan, “China may be able to coerce Taiwan into negotiating unification without a major fight, which would have devastating effects on U.S. national security,” he said.  

Cunningham warns that “while the U.S. government must do all it can to ensure China doesn’t catch up with the U.S. militarily, we have to be careful how we talk about this in our public discourse to avoid playing right into Beijing’s hand.”  

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