By the Numbers: Sen. Ron Johnson Outlines Balanced Budget Proposal

Returning to a balanced budget is feasible if the United States would return to pre-COVID-19-era spending levels, said Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., a member of the Senate Budget Committee. 

He cited spending levels under President Bill Clinton and has said the rate of increase should be based on population and the rate of inflation, barring a national emergency. 

Johnson’s plan uses President Joe Biden’s 2025 amounts for spending on Social Security and Medicare, since there is no appetite in either party to tackle entitlement spending. The plan uses fiscal year 1998 as a base, which is the first time the United States had a balanced budget since 1969. In 1998, the $1.7 trillion of spending would be about $5.5 trillion when factoring both inflation and population growth, while leaving Social Security and Medicare alone.

That takes the fiscal year 2025 budget to $5.5 trillion. That was the Biden administration revenue projection for the year—which means a balanced budget. 

“What’s interesting about that number is, that’s the revenue projection of the Biden administration,” Johnson said. “That’s how feasible a balanced budget is, but if that’s too reasonable for you, you know, take Clinton or take Obama in 2014. Do the same thing—increase based on population, inflation, [and] slot in today’s Medicare, Social Security, and interest, we’d be at $6.2 trillion right now.”

He later added, “I’m not approaching it from a grotesquely unreasonable $7 trillion base. I’m saying I don’t think Bill Clinton spent too little.” 

Johnson added, “I will guarantee that nobody who voted for President Trump, or virtually no one who voted for President Trump, thought we’d be spending at President Biden’s grotesque spending levels.” 

In fiscal 2019, federal spending was $4.4 trillion, ahead of the COVID-19 pandemic. In fiscal 2020, it was $6.5 trillion because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Johnson has noted.  

“If your family and you have a major medical problem, and you have to borrow $50,000 to pay for medical bills, once your family member is well, you don’t keep borrowing $50,000 and keep spending at that level,” Johnson told The Daily Signal. 

“You stop borrowing, you return to a pre-illness level. Well, that’s what the government should do,” Johnson said. “You know, in 2019, we spent $4.4 trillion during the pandemic. We shot up, you know, spending speed, $6.6 trillion. Last five years, we’ve averaged $6.5 trillion. Last year, we spent $6.9 [trillion]. I mean, there’s no justification for that. It’s grotesque.” 

Johnson said the emergency COVID-19 spending has become the new baseline, at about $6.9 trillion. Biden’s proposed fiscal 2025 budget was for $7.3 trillion, which would be 63.3% higher than fiscal year 2019 spending, when spending increased by 2.2% from the previous year.

“We have to return to some type of pre-pandemic, reasonable level of spending. I’ve proposed a couple options that we could go back, for example, to Bill Clinton’s 1998 budget. That’s where we actually had a surplus,” Johnson said “And if you take that budget and increase it based on population growth and inflation, plus you exempt Social Security, Medicare, and interest you spend at 2025 levels there.”

That’s a plan that Congress will have to examine for fiscal 2026, Johnson said, since fiscal 2025 already began, back in October, adding that he has talked to Senate Budget Committee Chairman Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., about the proposal. 

“For 2026, if we’re not down to something close to a $6 trillion baseline plus whatever inflation is for 2025 to 2026, shame on us,” Johnson said. 

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