CNN Data Chief Shatters ‘Blue Wave’ Hype: Democrats’ 2026 Lead ‘Less Than Half’ Of Past Midterms

Democrats expecting another “blue wave” in 2026 should “hold the phone,” CNN’s chief data analyst warned this week, revealing that the party’s generic ballot advantage has collapsed to less than half of what it was before their historic midterm victories in 2006 and 2018.

CNN data guru Harry Enten delivered the “reality check” to Democrats in a Wednesday CNN segment, noting their current two-point lead pales in comparison to the seven-point advantage they held at this stage before previous wave elections.

“Their lead is less than half, less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years – the year before the midterm election,” Enten said, noting that democrats had a generic ballot lead of 7 points in both the 2005 and 2017 midterms, respectively, compared to just 2 points in the leadup to 2026.

The data paints a drastically different picture than what many Democrats might hope for heading into the midterms.

“Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point,” Enten told CNN host John Berman, adding that Republicans are “still very much in the game” for control of Congress.

Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.

Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.

Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025

Enten noted this election cycle more closely resembles 2024 than either of the previous Democratic wave years, telling viewers expecting a Democratic sweep to “hold the phone.”

“At this particular point, this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does than either 2018 or 2006,” Enten said based on recent polling from Ipsos and other organizations.

The CNN data guru notes that the Cook Political Report’s seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more pickup opportunities for Republicans than Democrats, at a projected net gain of +12 for the GOP.

In July 2017, Cook projected a net gain of +33 for democrats, and they ended up picking up 41 House seats during the 2018 midterms of Trump’s first term.

Midterm elections have historically served as a referendum on the party controlling the White House, and in only one instance in the past half century has the president’s party both held the House going in and managed to keep it: the 2002 midterms, following the 9/11 attacks.

The 2024 election, which Enten cited as most similar to current trends, saw Republicans maintain their House majority, with Democrats netting just a single seat — a stark contrast to the 31 and 41 House seats Democrats captured in the 2006 and 2018 wave elections.