Economists Wrong Again: Wholesale Inflation Remained Unchanged In June

The producer price index, which measures wholesale costs in the United States, showed no change last month, defying the expectations of economists who have predicted for months that Americans would soon feel the pain of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The seasonally adjusted producer price index (PPI), released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday, came in at zero while economists were expecting an increase of at least 0.2%, CNBC reported. Month-over-month core PPI, which strips out food and energy, also remained unchanged after experts expected a 0.2% jump.

“Combined with Tuesday’s consumer price index release, the data suggests that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are indicating only a marginal bite on the U.S. economy and the prices for goods and services,” CNBC reported.

Vice President JD Vance commented on the good economic news, writing on X, “It’s almost like the economics profession doesn’t fully understand tariffs.”

Year-over-year headline PPI was up 2.3% in June, down from the 2.7% increase in May. The June number was the lowest annual PPI level since September 2024. Core PPI came in at an annual rate of 2.6% in June, which was the lowest gain since July of last year.

Wednesday’s producer price index report came one day after the BLS revealed that inflation crept up 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in June, coming in slightly above economists’ predictions. On Tuesday, the White House said that inflation remains “on the right track.”

“Every month since President Trump took office, core inflation — the best measure of inflation — has beat[en] or matched expectations. The data proves that President Trump is stabilizing inflation and the Panicans continue to be wrong about tariffs raising prices,” said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

The economic reports come two weeks before tariffs on numerous countries around the world, imposed by President Trump, are set to take effect on August 1. The president is also pointing to the inflation numbers to push the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The Fed is scheduled to meet at the end of the month to discuss interest rates, as reports swirl that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is considering stepping down.

“Fed should cut Rates by 3 Points. Very Low Inflation. One Trillion Dollars a year would be saved!!!” Trump said on Tuesday.