Ex-Clinton adviser warns Democrats of dire midterm season: 'Elections have consequences'

While Democratic operatives maintain an optimistic front going into the 2026 midterms, one high-profile adviser says there are plenty of warning signs.

Doug Sosnik, a political analyst and former adviser to President Bill Clinton, said that although certain factors would suggest Republicans are at a disadvantage going into 2026, Democrats are unlikely to actually seize the moment and secure significant wins.

'For Democrats, it's all about consolidating their base which has atrophied since they lost the 2024 elections.'

In his annual big-picture memo, Sosnik noted that President Donald Trump's approval rating is lagging, and his support among independents has dipped. At the same time, Sosnik predicted that "it is unlikely that [Democrats] will have anywhere near the level of success that the out-of-power party has had in previous midterm elections with such an unpopular incumbent president."

"The reason for this has less to do with the Democrats' historically low approval rating than with a political realignment that began forming long before Donald Trump ever ran for president," Sosnik added.

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Sosnik partially attributed this realignment to education level, which has become a new political fault line. For decades, Democrats had consistently experienced a "steady erosion" of support from rural, working-class voters, prompting the party to lean on college-educated Americans to win elections. This shift puts Democrats at a massive electoral disadvantage since the majority of eligible voters in the country do not have a college degree.

This realignment is ultimately reflected in the Democrats' political class. As Sosnik noted, over half of the current Democratic senators come from the 12 states with the highest levels of four-year college degrees. Similarly, two-thirds of House Democrats come from the 100 most highly educated districts across the country.

"More than a president's job approval or the candidates on the ballot, the breakdown by education level of the electorate is what matters in determining the outcome of American elections," Sosnik said.

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Another disadvantage staring down Democrats is the reality that the political focus is increasingly national and decreasingly local. In Congress, 419 House members and 90 senators are from the same party as the presidential candidate who won their district in 2024.

Because of this realignment, over 80% of congressional races are no longer considered competitive, narrowing Democrats' political opportunities. To add insult to injury, Sosnik predicts that the Republicans' overwhelming success in the most recent presidential election will "further tilt" the playing field in 2026.

"For Democrats, it's all about consolidating their base which has atrophied since they lost the 2024 elections," Sosnik said. "Luckily for them — when it comes to the midterms, anyway — their strongest supporters are college graduates, who are most likely to vote in off-year elections."

"The one thing that is clear is that the results in next year's midterms will tell us very little about the 2028 presidential election," Sosnik added. "That election will be a referendum on America's future as we finally move away from Politics in the Age of Trump."

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