‘Gold-Standard’ Pollster Who Overlooked Trump Win In Iowa Calls It Quits

Pollster J. Ann Selzer announced over the weekend that she would be stepping away from election polling after her survey in Iowa, which had been widely regarded as a “gold-standard” poll in political forecasting, fumbled the 2024 presidential election.

“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” Selzer wrote in a guest column published on Sunday by the Des Moines Register.

“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course,” she added. “It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite.”

Selzer & Company’s final poll of the 2024 election cycle for the Register and Mediacom found Vice President Kamala Harris leading President-elect Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters in Iowa, while other surveys conducted in the final stretch of the 2024 campaign showed Trump ahead of Harris. Ultimately, Trump defeated Harris 56% to 42.7% in Iowa, marking his third general election victory in the Hawkeye State in a row.

Trump’s campaign released a statement mocking Selzer after it became clear that Trump would beat Harris in Iowa.

“Congratulations to Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance on their victory,” Trump Campaign Deputy Political Director Alex Latcham said in a statement. “After four years under Kamala Harris, Hawkeye state voters are eager for President Trump to fix what Kamala Harris broke. Starting on Day 1, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance will help to ease costs, secure the border, and protect Social Security for retirees like Ann Selzer.”

On Election Night, Selzer said that she would be reviewing the data from her “outlier” poll that showed Harris leading Trump by 3 percentage points when it became clear that it had missed the mark. And Register Executive Editor Carol Hunter said her newspaper would also be “closely reviewing the disparity.”

In her guest column on Sunday, Selzer wrote that her “history of accuracy” might have “made the outlier position too comfortable.” She said that polling “is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.” Selzer also shared her future plans, saying, “My work will continue for current clients and for clients yet to come. In addition, I’m thinking about how to put other talents to work for the benefit of new clients.”