How the Ukraine-Russia war could be decided by mercenaries

Russia is using their vast oil and mineral wealth to hire mercenaries from impoverished parts of Pakistan, Syria, and Africa. The BBC created a useful chart, that shows the increasing use of mercenaries, and conscripts from the poor parts of Russia.

Despite his denials, Putin’s recent visit to North Korea is an attempt to recruit more. The mercenaries have few Russian language skills, and no ideological interest. While they probably represent only about 18,000 (and growing) numbers of the total troops engaged in frontline attacks on Ukraine, they have their uses. Many of them are given two weeks training and sent to die in headlong charges against the Ukrainian drones and artillery – often before they can be paid.

Ukraine has about 13,000 mercenaries (a conservative estimate based on both Russian and Ukrainian claims). Many are driven by an ideological hatred of Putin and his administration, as well as the money. Although there are some mercenaries in the Ukrainian forces who only joined for the money. The Ukrainians pay US$600 to US$3,300 per month depending on specific combat role, and the Russians about $1200 per month. The difference between being a paid volunteer and a mercenary is borderline – both are being employed to fight for others.

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Approximately 3000 of the Ukrainian mercenaries are Russian or Belarusian citizens. They are comprised of the following units:

The notorious and aggressive Azov regiment (formerly based near the Russian Sea of Azov) comprises at least two Russian battalions. Decimated at the 2022 Siege of Mariupol they have reformed, shedding some of their neo-Nazi roots.

The Freedom of Russia Legion which comprises 500 to 1000 soldiers. They are engaged in attacks behind Russian lines.

The far-right neo-Nazi Russian Volunteer Corp (RVC) recruits Russian deserters and POW’s. Ukraine equips them but does not officially recognize them as part of the Ukrainian army. The RVC maintains a “Free Cossack Squad” consisting of Cossack volunteers primarily from the Kuban region of southern Russia. The Cossacks will never forgive the former Soviet Union for the genocide committed against them up to World War II and immediately afterwards.

The Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment is named after Kastuś Kalinoŭski, a 19th-century Belarusian leader and has over 300 members. They are drawing large numbers of Belarusians to their side.

Two battalions of fighters, the Sheik Mansour battalion, and the Dzhohar Dudaev battalion are composed of Russian Chechens. They are particularly incensed by their fellow Chechens fighting for Russia led by Ramzan Kadyrov.  Many Ukrainians mock the Russian Chechens as “Tik Tok Warriors”, because of their incompetence and their propensity to pose in uniform on this platform.

Finally, there is the Sibir Battalion which consists of Siberian Russians. It comprises about 100 highly trained commandos.

After a rush of idealistic volunteers from the West in the first year of the war, Ukraine now conducts psychological tests on all new candidates. The tests will indicate whether mercenaries will stay in Ukraine for the long term. Russia, on the hand, cynically exploits its recruits for transitory gain.

So, will mercenaries win Putin’s war?

Possibly, as you still need manpower to occupy ground, even in a technological world. However, mercenaries are more likely to surrender than Russian citizens. Ther loyalty is doubtful. Many have deserted. They only have to cross the battlelines to get access to the West. Putin recalls clearly the 2022 mutiny by Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries and has his National Guard (Rosgvardiya) closely monitor them.

As revealed above many of Ukraine’s mercenaries are Russian or Belarusian citizens. Will they convince many fellow citizens to desert and join them? At this stage it is too early to say.

A recent YouTube video is of a Chinese mercenary, Li Jianwei from the poor Zhengzhou district, who is accompanied by a terrified African recruit, describing the hellish frontline conditions, while fighting for the Russians. From his frontline perspective, he describes the war as “unwinnable.”

Patrick Drennan is a journalist based in New Zealand, with a degree in American history and economics.

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