Key Seats Virginia GOP Hopes to Flip to Take Back State House

As the 45-day early voting period has recently begun in Virginia—the second longest after the 46 days of Minnesota and South Dakota—I was reminded of a quote that former Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli shared with me from an election official about the strain it puts on them: “Someone forgot that election officials need to do laundry.” It is a heavy burden on everyone who wants to make sure that every valid voter casts his one valid vote.

The COVID-19 pandemic was the impetus for these new “election seasons” replacing “Election Day.” In hindsight, the pandemic rules on social distancing and “stopping the spread” seemed discordant to many. We were told state employees had to be protected from possible COVID-19 spread at polling places and that the six-foot distancing requirements were going to overcrowd the polling places, so we needed mail-in voting and at least a month and half to vote to make sure everyone got counted.

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Yet Virginia ABC employees received no such consideration, as they were to remain open to sell alcohol and even expand their hours—but no one noticed the disparity.

So, for 45 days starting in 2020, Virginians could turn up long before Election Day and cast a ballot. Moreover, they could request one by mail and drop it off in a drop box and never have to see, or presumably pass the coronavirus to, another soul.

Five years later, we have in many ways “moved on” from COVID-19, though there are still a few souls seen walking on the sidewalk with a cloth mask on and vaccines are still in the news—mainly because the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are moving away from mandates for anyone besides the very old or those with co-morbidities.

However, Virginia’s 45-day-long voting season remains.

One of the cornerstones of the American voting system had been a secret ballot cast in public. The casting of the secret ballot dates back to ancient Greece, and the “in public view” was a secondary policy to try to guarantee that the voter was not under any coercion.

Article 2, Section 3 of Virginia’s Constitution says, “Secrecy in casting votes shall be maintained, except as provision may be made for assistance to handicapped voters, but the ballot box or voting machine shall be kept in public view and shall not be opened, nor the ballots canvassed nor the votes counted, in secret.”

So, as Virginians head to the polls (early voting started Sept. 19), many wonder if the commonwealth will ever go back to an actual “Election Day.” I’m told by those in the halls of the General Assembly that best case scenario is a one-week early voting period. But even the suggestion of that brings cries of “Jim Crow!” and “Voter suppression!” and even “Poll tax!” from those who relish a system where as many as 50% of the votes will be cast outside of the community view through mail-in ballots.

How do we change this?

There needs to be a General Assembly willing to pass such legislation amending the 45-day voting period and a governor willing to sign it.

Many of the 2025 campaigns for Virginia governor and House of Delegates have steered away from a debate on the issue because the Senate will remain in the control of the “pro-45-day early voting period” party for at least two more years.

But wresting a GOP majority in the current Democrat-run House could be seen as a first step. Here are the key House races that GOP insiders tell me they are hoping to flip:

Virginia’s 97th House District that covers part of Virginia Beach: Democrat Del. Michael Feggans is finishing his first term in the House representing a district he won 51% to 46%. His opponent is former Republican Del. Tim Anderson, who was redistricted out of his district in 2023.

Vice President Kamala Harris outperformed Feggans in 2024, taking 56% of the district, but President Donald Trump also outperformed him, receiving 6,000 more votes than Feggans did, so Anderson’s job is to get all those voters back to the polls. This is also a district that Glenn Youngkin carried in 2021.

Virginia’s 21st House District, covering part of Prince William County: Democrat Del. Josh Thomas is also finishing his freshman stint in Virginia’s House after winning the seat in 2023 51% to 48%. In 2024, Harris also had similar results, 51.5% to 45.9%.  Thomas is facing off against Republican Greg Gorham, whose biggest challenge is fundraising.

Gorham currently trails the money race $740,000 to $20,000, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, but this is also a precinct that Youngkin, a Republican, won. And if the 19,000 district residents who voted for Trump come out for Gorham, it would be 5,000 more votes than Thomas received in 2023.

Virginian’s 65th House District, covering Fredericksburg, Stafford and Spotsylvania: Democrat Josh Cole is not a newcomer, though there is a gap between his first term from 2020-2022 and this term in the House. He’s facing a challenge from Republican Sean Steinway, who has been “holding his own” in terms of fundraising, only trailing $668,000 to $402,000, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

This is another of the districts that Youngkin carried (51% to 48%) in 2021 but that has been a Democrat seat in all the races since. In 2024, it went 53% to 44% for Harris, but the 19,000 votes Trump received is 3500 more than Cole received in 2023.

Virginian’s 84th House District, covering west of Norfolk to Franklin: Democrat Del. Nadarius Clark is facing his first re-election test in the seat he won in 2023 53% to 46%. His opponent is Republican Felisha Storm, and the district went even more heavily for Harris in 2024, 54% to 40%. Trump received 20,000 votes in 2024 in the district while Clark received 15,000 in 2023.

The numbers show that for Republicans, this is all about getting their voters to turn out for an off-year election. And the Youngkin model seems to be to drive turnout.  If the 32,000 ballots cast statewide just on Friday alone are any indication, someone is turning out.

The GOP hopes that its voters—who have taken a while to become comfortable with early voting but have seen how it helps their candidates’ campaigns with better resource and time management—come out in larger numbers and give them a chance to win back the House majority as well as the Governor’s Mansion for another four years. Perhaps then with their renewed authority, they can shorten that early voting window again.

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