Morning Brief: Your Election Day Guide, A New Jersey Spotlight, & The Stakes In New York City

We look at the final polling and stakes for both parties, check on the New Jersey governor’s race, and peer into New York City, where frontrunner Zohran Mamdani brings a commanding lead into the final day.

It’s Tuesday, November 4, 2025, and this is the news you need to know to start your day. Today’s edition of the Morning Wire podcast can be heard below, and the video version can be seen on The Daily Wire:

Election Day: Here’s What To Know

Topline: It’s Election Day, as millions of voters will make their voices heard and offer new insights into the looming midterms.

This could well be a rough night for Republicans. The party in control of Washington almost always does poorly in off-year elections, and the biggest races are in blue states or cities. But conservatives are still hopeful they can pull off some upsets. 

New Jersey: Republicans’ best shot appears to be in New Jersey. Republican Jack Ciattarelli has stormed back from a 20-point deficit to challenge Democrat Mikie Sherrill. The latest polling has him within the margin of error in a state where Donald Trump got within six points last year.

If he is to win today, he must have an enormous turnout from his base and win the majority of independents. New Jersey has nearly a million more registered Democrats than Republicans, and based on the latest data, Democrats have already cast about 220,000 more mail-in ballots. Ciattarelli is already digging out of a hole.

Virginia: Virginia appears to be a safer bet for Democrats, with their nominee, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, holding about a ten-point lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in most polls. Republicans were hopeful that the texting scandal involving Attorney General nominee Jay Jones would drag Spanberger down, but, despite her refusal to retract her endorsement of Jones, she is holding steady.

California: California’s Prop 50, known as the Election Rigging Response Act, was proposed by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom and would suspend the state’s current congressional map and authorize a partisan-led redrawing of districts. The ballot measure essentially allows Democrats to add up to five new Democratic seats.

The proposal has drawn outrage from Republicans around the country, but it looks almost certain to pass. That could have major ramifications in a very closely divided D.C.

New Jersey Spotlight

Topline: New Jersey residents hit the polls today to elect their next governor. The increasingly close race pits Sherrill against Ciattarelli, who’s hoping to flip the Garden State red.

The race to be the next governor of the Garden State is razor-thin. Most polls are within the margin of error.

New Jersey is considered a blue state. Residents have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992. The outgoing governor, Phil Murphy, is a Democrat. And, Sherrill, up until recently, had a very substantial lead over Ciattarelli.

More than a million New Jersey residents have already voted, but Republicans tend to show up on Election Day, and the weather forecast is clear.

Obama tags in: Former President Barack Obama campaigned for Sherrill over the weekend, hoping to get her over the finish line, which many in the GOP have interpreted as the Democrats being worried. Much of Obama’s pitch was about Trump.

“It’s hard to know where to start because every day this White House offers up a fresh batch of lawlessness and carelessness and means spiritedness and just plain old craziness,” said Obama.

Trump factor: The president has enthusiastically endorsed Ciattarelli, calling him a great candidate who’s “all-in” on the MAGA agenda. As for Ciattarelli, he hasn’t shied away from Trump’s embrace, but there has been some nuance in his positions because he is campaigning in a blue state.

Ciattarelli says he will repeal the state’s board “sanctuary” policy on illegal immigration on Day One, but he also indicated that whatever it is the local “mayor and police chief decide to do to keep their community safe,” he’d be on board with.

Major issues: Economic issues are top of mind for New Jersey voters. GOP activist Scott Presler told The Daily Wire that this race is “100% in play” and he called this an “economic election.” Presler said New Jersey voters “are being crushed by property taxes” and “electricity taxes,” in particular. Ciattarelli has really focused on those issues and criticized Democrats for their energy policies. 

Cultural issues and parental rights are also playing a factor. Sherrill took some heat for saying she would mandate an LGBTQ curriculum in public schools and suggesting that parents don’t have a right to opt out of that.

She is also facing negative press over a reported $7 million in profits from stock trades while in Congress. She was fined for violating the STOCK Act. There’s also a cheating scandal from 1994 during her Naval Academy days.

The Impact Of A Mamdani Win

Topline: Polls are open this morning in New York City, and Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, appears poised to win the mayoral race.

Mamdani’s chances: Most of the major polling shows margins range from 10 to 25 points in Mamdani’s favor. He’s winning between 44% and 50% support compared to former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who’s getting around 25% to 34% and Republican Curtis Sliwa is pulling about 15% to 21%.

A new poll out yesterday from Atlas-Intel did show a tighter race though, giving Mamdani only a 6.6% lead over Cuomo. But the betting markets are tilted heavily toward Mamdani. Polymarket has Mamdani at a 95% chance of victory.

President Trump on Monday urged voters in New York City to back Cuomo over “communist” Mamdani.

What Mamdani means: Clearly, the younger generation is much more open to socialism than older generations. According to a recent survey, only 31% of young Democrats today have a positive view of capitalism, a 23-point drop since 2010. Mamdani is running on rent freezes, free city buses and free childcare, even government-owned grocery stores with fixed prices.

Another point to take is how immigration is impacting the political landscape. Polling data shows that the bulk of Mamdani’s support is coming from foreign-born voters. For New York voters born outside the U.S., Mamdani draws 62%. Cuomo only gets 24%, and Sliwa receives 12%.

For American-born New Yorkers, we see something of an inverse of these numbers. With them, Cuomo holds an eight-point lead over Mamdani.

Worth noting also that Mamdani would be New York’s first Muslim mayor and his positions on Israel have concerned many Jewish Americans. He’s refused to recognize Israel as a Jewish state and to condemn the phrase “globalize the intifada.”

Many are concerned that he represents a growing acceptance of antisemitism on the political Left.

Democrats are wary: Major Democratic party figures are sending mixed messages on Mamdani. Obama, the ultimate Democratic figurehead, called Mamdani personally and offered to be a “sounding board” for him. But never officially endorsed him.

Most other national Democrats seem to be splitting the difference in messaging somewhat, too. Mamdani has won some key endorsements from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). But Jeffries only endorsed at the last minute and said he doesn’t believe Mamdani represents the Democrats’ future.