Republican Redistricting Bolsters GOP Midterm Chances

Republican redistricting could be the key to the GOP maintaining control of the House through gaining several seats in Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Florida, and Texas. The GOP currently holds a three seat majority in the House of Representatives, which means any advantage to the Republican Party matters. 

Ohio has the potential to lend itself to three Republican seat gains in the House of Representatives. Ohio’s redistricting is mandated by law to occur before the 2026 midterms and is controlled by the Republican dominated state legislature.

The Buckeye state has immense potential for pickups in the House of Representatives by Republicans as overall the state is moving red. Ohio is currently represented by 10 Republicans and five Democrats, and could be redistricted to get that ratio up to 13 Republicans and two Democrats. That would mean targeting three Democrat members of Congress: Emilia Sykes, Marcy Kaptur, and Greg Landsman.

Indiana could marshal an additional Republican House member if it also went through with redistricting. Right now the state sends seven Republicans and two Democrats to the House, and Republicans would likely try to unseat Democrat congressman Frank Mrvan if the congressional lines were redrawn. 

Missouri Republicans are also looking to shed a Democrat seat from their delegation before the midterm elections. That would likely entail Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., becoming bereft of his seat, pushing the congressional delegation makeup to seven Republicans and one Democrat. Right now it stands at eight members with six Republicans and two Democrats (Rep. Wesley Bell, D-Mo., is the other House Democrat). 

In recent days, Florida’s Republican leadership has announced it is also considering redistricting. The Sunshine state has a 28 person delegation to Congress that is composed of 20 Republicans and eight Democrats. 

Republicans have enough power in the state that would likely be able to pass any map that is drawn up, and Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has sounded off that he expects the new districts to be done by spring of next year. There are three House Democrats that would be likely targets in any redraw of the map. They are Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., or Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla. 

Republicans in the Texas legislature have passed new district lines that are anticipated to add five new Republican House seats from the Lone Star State. Altogether Republican efforts in Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Florida, and Texas could add perhaps as many as 13 seats to the Republican majority. 

Democrat efforts at redistricting appear to be decidedly less favorable to them. Most promising is California where Gov. Gavin Newsom is attempting to flip five Republican congressional seats. 

Nevertheless, Hans von Spakovsky, the manager of the Election Law Reform Initiative and a senior legal fellow in the Edwin Meese III Center for Legal and Judicial Studies at The Heritage Foundation, told The Daily Signal predicted Democrats would not come out of redistricting as the winners.

“The political stunt by Gov. Newsom in California to redistrict his already gerrymandered state to eliminate the few GOP seats that are there is spurring both Florida and Ohio to redraw their congressional districts, putting those Democrat seats in peril,” Spakovsky said.

“And unlike California where Newsom has to persuade voters to adopt a new plan and override the state’s independent redistricting commission in a referendum–which polling shows is unlikely–neither Florida nor Ohio have such a commission. Thus, the legislatures of both states can redistrict much easier than the uphill path faced by Newsom. He and his fellow Democrats are starting a redistricting war that they are likely to lose,” Spakovsky added.

Maryland Gov. Wesley Moore has said “all options are on the table” when it comes to redistricting Maryland’s sole Republican representative, Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., out of his congressional seat. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said New York State Democrats would respond to Republican redistricting attempts “as appropriately” in an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash on Sunday. There are currently seven Republicans out of New York’s 26 person House delegation. Illinois sends three Republicans and 14 Democrats to the House of Representatives. Each of the red congressional districts in Illinois voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election by double digits suggesting that it would be difficult for the Land of Lincoln state to lose Republican representation in the House.

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