Republicans Walk the Tightrope to Reopening the Government

Amid the longest-ever federal government shutdown, a possible path to reopening the government is emerging But the task of Republican leaders in Congress, to cajole enough people to walk down that path, will be difficult.

Republicans in both chambers are walking a tightrope. It is likely that a long-term fix to the current gridlock would involve satisfying some Democrat’s desires. Those concessions, however, could expose Republican leaders’ right flank and lead to conservative defections. 

Democrats for weeks have been hammering the issue of health care, demanding the extension of COVID-era enhanced premium tax credits, which they set to expire at the end of 2025 in a budget bill under President Joe Biden.

On Tuesday, Democrats won in four major races: the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race, and the New York City mayoral race.

Democrats’ healthcare messaging during the shutdown was part of the party’s revitalized efforts to resist President Donald Trump’s administration. If the shutdown was part of Democrats’ campaign strategy, some Democrats may be willing to reopen the government now that those elections are in the rearview mirror. 

Additionally, open enrollment in the Affordable Care Act marketplace began Saturday, meaning consumers are already shopping for health plans, and it is unlikely action from Congress could undo any of the sticker shock from the expiration of the credits that Democrats have discussed.

Thune Tries to Get the Senate Working

In the Senate, bipartisan negotiations to reopen government appear to be making some limited progress.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has recently been speaking positively of an attempt to come to a deal on packaging together three bills in a “minibus” package to create momentum for a full reopening.

According to Politico and The Hill, Democrat Sens. Gary Peter of Michigan and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire have been involved in these discussions.

“The mini package should be nearing completion, and that will be the vehicle” for a partial reopening of the government, Thune told reporters after a Capitol luncheon on Wednesday, per Politico.

Fox and Punchbowl News reported Thursday that Senate Republicans intend to bring a new funding package for a floor vote Friday in an attempt to break the multi-week log-jam.

Thune has also said that Congress will need a new funding extension with a later expiration date to buy time for finishing appropriations deals, rather than the current one, which would only fund the government until Nov. 21.

Politico cites sources saying that Thune plans to amend the continuing resolution Democrats have repeatedly rejected “with a new expiration date very likely in January as well as a negotiated package of three-bill full-year spending bills.”

Nevertheless, Thune remains optimistic about a deal.

“I think we’re getting close to an off-ramp,” Thune said Monday. “The objective here is to try and get something that we could send back to the House that would open up the government.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Tuesday,“We’re exploring all the options.”

Running the Congressional Gauntlet

Despite efforts to win over the needed Democrat support to overcome the filibuster in the Senate, the House and the president might have a say over what happens next.  

Trump has continued to call for the “nuclear option,” or the elimination of the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold required to pass most legislation in the upper chamber. Scrapping the filibuster would allow Republicans in the Senate to reopen government without Democrat input.

But Thune has continued to oppose nuking the filibuster, as have many of his Senate colleagues.

Additionally, any deal cooked up by the Senate could have an uncertain future in the House, where Republicans have a razor-thin majority. Some House conservatives have voiced their opposition to making compromises with Democrats.

Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., called Speaker of the House Mike Johnson’s opposition to an Obamacare subsidy deal “a significant problem” and said, “We have to make sure we have a deal that we can get broad support for,” per Bloomberg.

Even if the Senate were able to strike a deal and advance appropriations bills, there’s no guarantee those bills would withstand the scrutiny of House conservatives.On Tuesday, the House Freedom Caucus, a fiscally conservative Republican faction, endorsed advancing a long-term continuing resolution to extend current spending, “ideally past the November 2026 [midterm] election.”

Freedom Caucus members had been flirting with this position for months as a way to prevent spending increases, and their statement explains that such as move would “block any further effort by Democrats and the Swamp to advance a budget-busting, pork-filled, lobbyist handout omnibus in November or December.”

Meanwhile, Democrat congressional leaders continue to demand a talk with Trump.

“As long as their position is we are not willing to talk to you, we are going to continue to struggle,” Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., said Thursday.

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