Schumer’s shutdown gambit sorely tests his base

The government was set to “shut down” Friday night, and Democrats didn’t have a single good option. They chose surrender, but here’s how it could have played out.

Option A was to shut down President Donald Trump’s government, which would have been a temporary high for the activist resistance types before the reality of what that looks like hit. Option B was to join Republicans and claim to be the adults in the room, much to the anger of the Democrat base. Option C was to talk a big game, take part in a theatrical protest vote, and then quietly release their more endangered members to carry the spending bill over the finish line while party leadership decried its evils.

‘We’re getting more nominees confirmed while we let the Democrats go through the stages of grief.’

You’ll notice that none of these options would have ended with a Democrat win (though some were more palatable).

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) knew all this and did not like it. He knew shutting down the government would give a much-needed boost to the morale of the Democrats’ activist base, but he had to calculate the costs. This wasn’t going to play out like the shutdowns under Democratic President Barack Obama, who maximized pain on the American public while excoriating Republicans as “terrorists” and “arsonists” from the bully pulpit.

He knows Republicans control the White House, and by extension, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought would have had the lead say in what a shutdown would have looked like. When you combine Vought’s government-cutting bona fides with the broader government-cutting agenda of the Trump White House and its Department of Government Efficiency, the outcome was not a win for Democrats.

Further, he knows Democrats and Republicans look at government shutdowns through very different lenses. “We have never taken the position that a shutdown is the sum of all fears,” a longtime House Republican staffer and veteran of past shutdown battles told the Beltway Brief.

“It’s something that at worst can be avoided as a distraction from something else we really want to do,” the staffer said. “But that’s all. If you’re a liberal, though, a shutdown is a nightmare because the machine that you use for power isn’t on. Our base couldn’t care less. Their base couldn’t care more.”

Schumer didn’t have all day to make the decision, either. In a rare reversal of situations, the House of Representatives got ahead of the Senate, passing a clean continuing resolution on Tuesday night funding the government, before promptly leaving town. Thursday night, the Senate was left holding the hot potato with no one left to pass it to.

Nor did Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) opt to give the Democrats any breathing room. He could have moved more quickly, considering the midnight Friday deadline, and held a vote by Thursday, but he knows pressure is key to forcing uncomfortable votes.

“We’re getting more nominees confirmed,” one Senate Republican chief of staff told the Beltway Brief on Thursday afternoon, “while we let the Democrats go through the stages of grief.”

Schumer knew a shutdown would not be in the interests of his side. So what about Option C? What would theatrical resistance look like? It looked a lot like what we were beginning to see play out before Thursday night’s capitulation.

It began with a strong show of a force. Schumer came out Wednesday and said Republicans didn’t have the votes — and Democrats will not be providing them.

Next: Schumer would propose a different path, like a month-long CR that had no shot of succeeding but would show he’d fought. “Our caucus is unified on a clean April 11 CR,” Schumer said Wednesday night, “that will keep the government open and give Congress time to negotiate bipartisan legislation that can pass.”

Meanwhile, red- and purple-state Democrats like Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania were beginning to peel off, and Schumer knew it, so he could have given his vulnerable members a chance to vote “yes” on cloture (which has a 60-vote threshold), offered the Democrats’ proposed changes, gotten them shot down, said they tried, then watched as Republicans use a simple majority to pass the CR without Democrats voting in support.

Conservatives recognize these maneuvers. Republican leaders often stage controlled opposition fights against Democrats, only to claim they tried their best. Schumer was less accustomed to this dynamic. He couldn’t fake it. He told his base to kick rocks and played possum (a win for the James Carville side of the Democratic Party). Now, the activists will ask, “If not now, when?”

This week’s fight was over before it really began. This was realistic and politically intelligent, but where will it go from here? When will the Democrats choose the battle with the White House their voters demand, and when will they have the strength and ability to win?

The radicals are ready to raise the banners and dash them against the ramparts. How long can the Chuck Schumers of the party keep that spirit at bay?

Blaze News: Democrats in damage-control mode as Schumer shutdown approaches

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