The China Threat to Peace Between Russia and Ukraine

China could upset peace negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to an expert on China. 

“China could impede the peace process by telling Putin that it would cut off support if Putin were to talk to Ukraine or the United States,” Gordon Chang, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, told The Daily Signal. 

“China may understand that Russia needs to talk” to Ukraine and the U.S., Chang says, “but China could say, ‘Look, don’t talk in good faith. If you talk in good faith, we’ll cut you off.’”  

China has supplied Russia with a great deal of resources for the war against Ukraine, he explained. China has played a role in financing Russia’s war with Ukraine through increased commodity purchases, he said, adding, “China opened up its financial system to sanctioned Russian institutions.”  

Beijing has also provided Moscow with “diplomatic support, propaganda support, sale of weapons, [and] supplying of soldiers,” Chang said, noting that it is likely China is behind the deal that led to North Korean soldiers being sent to Russia.  

While China might not directly tell Russia to keep the war going, it could prolong the fighting by “stepping up support to Russia, so that Russia feels it could win on the battlefield,” he said, adding:

There are a number of different ways that the Chinese can play this, but ultimately, I think they will try to prolong the war.

Asked why China would be motivated to keep the war going between Russia and Ukraine, Chang referenced a July 2 conversation between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Kaja Kallas, vice president of the European Commission, in which Wang said he did not want Russia to lose the war for fear the U.S. would then shift its attention to Beijing.  

If the war ended between Russia and Ukraine, the “U.S. also will be able to refocus on East Asia, so it’s not just a question of seeing Russia lose, it’s seeing the war end,” Chang said of China’s likely thinking.  

To end the war, Chang contended, the U.S. needs to put more pressure on Russia.   

“I mean, we haven’t seized the frozen assets. We don’t sanction China for purchasing Russian oil. We haven’t cut off Russia from the global trading system. There are a lot of things that we can do and which we absolutely should do,” he said.  

Russia reportedly said it will stop the front-line fighting if Ukraine withdraws all troops from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, but Chang contends the U.S. cannot be a part of brokering a peace deal that includes Ukraine ceding territory to Russia, because China is watching.  

“If Russia is allowed to keep Ukrainian territory, you’re showing the Chinese that they can grab territory, too, and get away with it,” he said. “So, you’re opening the door to war in East Asia.”  

China and Taiwan have come close to war a number of times. China sees Taiwan as part of its territory, but Taiwan operates largely independently of China and is among the most democratically free nations in Asia. While the invasion of Taiwan would be complex, and many experts say an invasion poses too many downsides and risks to China, the fear of Chinese aggression against Taiwan remains prevalent.  

President Joe Biden’s “catastrophic” withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in February 2021 “led to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, so Ukraine is Biden’s war,” Chang said. “But the way that [President Donald] Trump ends Biden’s war can mean that we have a Trump war.”  

“Trump could very well be responsible for the world’s next war by the way he ends the war in Ukraine, because if he shows the world’s aggressors that the West will not stop aggression … then, of course, the Chinese are going to say, ‘Well, why don’t we grab Taiwan or the Philippines or Japan?’” he explained.  

The way to end Russia’s war with Ukraine, and do so without Ukraine ceding territory to Russia, is through financial pressure, Chang contends.  

“Cut off the money to Putin and watch his war machine stop dead in its tracks,” he said.  

“Cut the flow of oil,” Chang says, adding: “Freeze the Russian assets, punish all who buy Russian hydrocarbons. So, stop the flow of money. No money, no war.”  

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