‘Trump Effect’: Illegal Border Crossings Could Be on Track to Hit Near 50-Year Low

The White House has touted January’s 36% decline in border apprehensions—the lowest number of illegal aliens apprehended along the border in almost five years—as the “Trump effect.”

That total includes 29,116 apprehended at the border outside of official ports of entry, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. That’s the lowest since May 2020. And that compares to 47,316 apprehensions outside of official ports in December.

The January total also includes 32,349 apprehensions at ports of entry, compared to 48,719 in December.

Further, the Trump administration has dropped the catch-and-release policies of the Biden administration, where those caught crossing the border illegally would be released into the United States instead of immediately deported.

“Illegal immigration at the southern border plummeted in January amid President Donald J. Trump’s return to office and immediate crackdown,” the White House announced in a Tuesday statement. “Call it the Trump effect.”

Total illegal border crossings for fiscal year 2025 are on track to fall to the lowest rates since 1968, the last time it was five figures for the year, with about 94,000 illegal entries , noted Art Arthur, a former federal immigration judge and now resident fellow in law and policy at the Center for Immigration Studies, a think tank.

After the first Trump election, apprehensions at the border fell from 43,251 in December 2016 to 32,576 in January 2017, said Arthur. By April 2017, the apprehensions were down to 11,127, he added. 

“This is a more significant drop than the first Trump effect,” Arthur told The Daily Signal. “My guess is we will see it crater. But it could be April before we see the true decline.”

On Monday, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem issued a video message from Trump “to the world.”

“If you are considering entering America illegally, don’t even think about it,” Noem said in the video. “If you come to our country and break our laws, we will hunt you down. … If you try to enter illegally, you will be caught, you will be removed, and you will never return.” 

Others are far less enthusiastic about the deportations. The American Immigration Council, which is opposed to deportations, posted on X last week that the Trump administration isn’t abiding by the pledge to prioritize criminals. 

“As we near the one-month mark of the new Trump administration, it is clear that the president’s thinly veiled threats of imposing mass deportation on ‘criminal immigrants’ are a promise to target all immigrants—and sometimes even U.S. citizens,” the post on X says. 

While fewer people are being caught illegally crossing the border, the Trump administration’s arrest of illegal immigrants already in the country have skyrocketed by 137%, White House border czar Tom Homan posted on X. He added that arrests of those with criminal convictions have doubled under the Trump administration. 

While President Joe Biden was in office for most of January, Trump pledged that upon his arrival on Jan. 20, he would be much tougher on illegal immigration.

The White House also noted that in the 10-day period after Trump took office, the decline in apprehensions dropped significantly from Biden. From Jan. 21-Jan. 31, the drop was 85% in apprehensions from a year earlier.

Arthur noted that cooperation from the Mexican government will be key. Despite the frosty relationship between Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, he anticipates cooperation on the border. 

“Mexico doesn’t want illegal migrants going through their country,” Arthur said, referring to people from other countries traveling through Mexico to cross illegally into the United States. “OTMs [other than Mexicans] are an affront to Mexican sovereignty, put money in the cartels’ pockets, and promote corruption.”

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