Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration could greatly impact Democrats' political clout

Over 30 members of the Democrat-dominated California legislature signed a letter last month urging Republican congressional members from the Golden State "to request the President to end the crackdowns on hardworking, taxpaying immigrants in Southern California and throughout the state, as the actions are causing significant harm to our economy."

The June 18 letter noted that over one-quarter of the state's residents are "immigrants, totaling nearly 11 million people, including about 1.8 million who are undocumented," and suggested that "the vast majority of these folks contribute to California's economy and way of life."

For the first time in its history, California lost a seat in Congress in 2021, down from 53 to 52 following the 2020 census.

Those migrants, both legal and illegal, also contribute to the state's headcount in the decennial census.

While California Democrats might be genuinely concerned about the potential impact of losing low-wage foreign laborers who stole into the homeland, they also have cause to be concerned about what their party stands to lose as a result of a population decline precipitated by immigration enforcement.

As California is the most populous state in the union, it presently enjoys the most representation in the U.S. House of Representatives. However, for the first time in its history, California lost a seat in Congress in 2021, down from 53 to 52 following the 2020 census and a year marked by a drop in the state's population by more than 182,000 souls.

Owing to California's anemic population growth and significant growth elsewhere in the country, the state could lose additional seats in Congress and votes in the Electoral College through census-driven apportionment, as well as receive proportionately less of the federal money that is distributed by population.

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Citing December 2023 U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, the Brennan Center for Justice indicated in a report that California could lose four congressional seats after the 2030 census, and may fall to second place behind Texas in total population before 2040 if current trends continue.

"Based on the most recent trends, Texas would gain four seats and Florida three seats in the next reapportionment, placing Texas within striking distance of becoming the largest state, perhaps as early as 2040," said the report. "Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee also would each gain a new congressional seat, as would three mountain states: Arizona, Idaho, and Utah."

In a December update, the Brennan Center noted that "these big apportionment changes would also significantly change political parties’ Electoral College math starting with the 2032 election."

Even if a Democrat carried the so-called blue wall states and both Arizona and Nevada, they would eke out only a narrow 276-262 victory in 2032 if the Brennan Center's projections are correct.

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While the American Redistricting Project changed its forecast of California congressional seat losses from five to three, the Democratic stronghold's dominance still appears to be waning.

California has hemorrhaged residents to other states in recent years, though CalMatters noted that the intranational population loss is offset by inbound international traffic.

Democrats' dominance could be undermined further not only by the Trump administration continuing to remove illegal aliens but by the administration slowing down legal immigration into the country. After all, state officials credited the first Trump administration's immigration policies with helping set the stage for the 2021 congressional seat loss, reported the New York Times.

"If that immigration stops, then that's going to have some real consequences for our population growth and ultimately for our representation, for sure," Eric McGhee, a demographer at the Public Policy Institute of California, told CalMatters.

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