Trump’s Economic ‘Miracle’ Depends on His Foreign Policy Reset

President Donald Trump’s work on the world stage is directly and inherently connected to our success at home.

One of the major media narratives following the recent set of elections that went quite poorly for Republicans is that Trump and the GOP need to focus more on economic and kitchen table issues than on foreign policy.

There is likely some truth to this. Democrats have capitalized on the “affordability” issue to gain some serious political momentum. The government shutdown that Democrats have orchestrated probably didn’t help either.

However, it would be a mistake to think that what Trump is doing on foreign policy is disconnected from what’s happening here at home. Trump appears to be playing the long game with his international moves. This may hurt his poll numbers and Republican electoral chances in the short term but will be essential to sustaining a winning majority and strong coalition.

A Lesson From Reagan

The future of American prosperity, economic and cultural, depends very much on the state of global politics and the U.S. position within it. Trump, in my assessment, is taking a calculated risk much like how Ronald Reagan did at the beginning of his presidency.

Reagan understood that following a decade of “stagflation” the United States had to beat the inflation bug long-term or the 1980s would end up a lost economic decade just like the 1970s. So, Reagan did what was deeply unpopular in the short term. He tightened monetary policy and waited out the fever of economic pain, which lasted for years. He took some very serious political lumps by doing so. His popularity steeply declined. Republicans got walloped in the midterms.

But the economy came alive after a short recession, creating a long-term boom for the country. In his second term Reagan could credibly say it was “morning again in America.”

Trump’s “golden age,” is also dependent on a similar long-term adjustment that can’t happen overnight. Trump can’t just press a button and make things better. But he can strengthen our position in the world. He can help ensure energy prices go down and domestic manufacturing goes up.

Reestablishing American Strength

Under past administrations, especially that of Joe Biden, the American position in the world was clearly slipping away. Despite Biden’s hollering about “democracy” and American strength, our enemies around the globe were no longer taking us seriously. If that continued, American economic prosperity would crumble.

For Trump’s economic “miracle” to happen, and for it to sweep in a wide net of Americans, Trump’s grand strategy must be a success.

What the president is trying to do, I believe, is craft one of the most sweeping and challenging pivots in American foreign policy in the history of our country. It’s not going to come without some mistakes and some initially unresolvable challenges.

Peace between Russia and Ukraine, the most significant hot war on the planet, remains elusive despite Trump securing so many other treaties. Trump’s bull in a China shop approach to trade has reaped big successes, but it’s also angered a few long-term allies. China remains implacable.

But the Trump administration does seem to be ultimately putting the U.S. on better footing with friends and foes. U.S. partners in Europe are finally boosting their military spending to handle their own defense. The Middle East is calming down as Iran has been badly chastened, the Israel/Hamas conflict has ended (for now), and the economic ties that bind former foes through the Abraham Accords is strengthening.

Many active conflicts, some of which have continued for decades, have ended in negotiated peace.

Strategic decoupling from China has been uneven but seems to be well underway.

It’s likely that none of this would have happened without Trump’s leadership.

Some of the deals that Trump has made with our allies have been harsher than they were in the past, but it’s almost certainly for the purpose of strengthening the American hand and ensuring that the U.S. can reindustrialize and maintain our longstanding position in the world.

Securing valuable rare earth minerals may not do much for the economy right now, but it will mean that we won’t be at the mercy of China’s whims in the future. This is about long-term success.

Our experience during the COVID-19 outbreak should provide a clear example of why we can’t rely on the communist regime going forward.

Some of Trump’s international moves directly intersect the line between foreign and domestic policy. With Trump effectively shutting down the border and beginning the difficult process of deporting those who don’t legally belong in this country, he will likely ease some of the burden of housing costs, for instance. And by targeting cartels aided by American foes in Central and South America, he is addressing the “root causes” of a border problem that has bedeviled the country for more than a generation.

Quagmires Are Out, Deterrence Through Strength is In

Trump’s moves have even broader implications than how they affect the economy, too. He has used swift and decisive force on several occasions during his two non-consecutive terms in office.

Trump has ordered a precision strike on an Iranian general who killed Americans, then struck Iran’s nuclear facility years later with the remarkable Operation Midnight Hammer. The U.S. Navy conducted its largest operation since World War II in its battle with Houthi terrorists in Yemen, a conflict that incredibly led to zero U.S. combat deaths. (Two Navy SEALS did drown while attempting to board a vessel carrying weapons to Yemen.) And Trump’s used U.S. military force to clamp down on drug traffickers in the Caribbean while putting pressure on Venezuela’s socialist regime.

But none of these demonstrations of force have led to wide-scale, long-term ground combat. Just as importantly, none have ended in the kind of shambolic failure that we saw in Biden’s disastrous and sloppy exit from Afghanistan.

Trump, alongside his Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, is rebuilding credible deterrence while avoiding military quagmires that waste valuable resources, sap national morale, and shake the confidence of U.S. service personnel.

Nothing will be more catastrophic to American prosperity than a major war with a peer or near-peer adversary. By rebuilding American strength, calming regional conflicts that could suck in larger powers, and relying on serious allies to consider their own defense rather than assuming the U.S. will always swoop in and handle things, Trump is making it less likely that we will be involved in a massive conflict.

And by doing so he will give his domestic agenda time to take effect and succeed. A world of “commerce, not chaos,” is what Trump is aiming for to ensure this continues to be another American century.

The post Trump’s Economic ‘Miracle’ Depends on His Foreign Policy Reset appeared first on The Daily Signal.