Will Trump’s Tariffs Hurt GOP in Midterm Elections?

As President Donald Trump moves at a feverish pace in imposing tariffs and undoing much of his predecessor’s legacy, a question has emerged: How will voters react to these bold actions when midterm elections arrive in 2026? 

The Daily Signal asked a number of top consultants to congressional candidates across the country that question.

Trump has said that his tariffs—which have corresponded with a drop in his economic job-approval rating—will end up benefiting him and Republicans in midterms.

“And I really think we’re helped a lot by the tariff situation that’s going on, which is a good situation,” he said at a National Republican Congressional Committee fundraising dinner last week.

“It’s going to be legendary. You watch.”

But Brad Bannon, a veteran pollster and political consultant for Democrat congressional campaigns, told The Daily Signal he thinks lower approval ratings and higher uncertainty on the economy will benefit Democrats significantly.

“I don’t believe that anybody should panic, but the Republicans should be worried, based on the latest polling I’ve seen,” said Bannon.

Bannon said he was paying particular attention to a CBS poll that showed 53% of people thought the economy had worsened in the past three months and 54% thought Trump had ownership for the state of the economy, rather than former President Joe Biden.

Though he acknowledged that Trump’s economic approval rating has risen since its nosedive amid the market crash, he suggested that the fall in the stock market would trigger backlash from voters with 401(k)s who “got basically killed during the tariff thing.” 

But Republican consultants painted a different picture.

Jason Roe is a reelection campaign consultant for Rep. Tom Barrett, R-Mich., who flipped Michigan’s 7th Congressional District in 2024, which is one of the most volatile swing districts in the country. 

Michigan is in a special situation as a state that’s especially reliant on Canadian goods, but also has many voters who suffered from deindustrialization in the wake of prior free-trade agreements. 

Roe says polling suggests to him that voters are willing to give Trump a chance on his ambitious restructuring of the economy.

“Everyone seems to—even people that don’t love Trump—feel like we’ve got to do something,” Roe said. “It’s unsustainable as it is.”

“So, I think there’s this willingness to give the benefit of the doubt, and you see that in polling on issues like tariffs that don’t poll well, yet Trump’s numbers are still holding. He’s at 47 in the most recent CBS poll. For him to be doing what he’s doing and being who he is, that’s an extraordinarily strong number… but if we get much past Labor Day and people aren’t seeing results… then we could see political problems.” he added.

Brad Todd, another veteran GOP political consultant, said that Trump must decide on his goals with tariffs. 

He said that using tariffs to “knock down foreign tariffs” and to “increase manufacturing” were good for Republican political prospects, but that using them as a “revenue generator” would “cause a little bit more indigestion in the economy.”

Democrats also have much to fear as they look toward the 2026 midterms. The Democratic Party had a 27% approval rating in an NBC poll in March.

Additionally, the Democratic Party has begun to gravitate toward polarizing figures, such as Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Jasmine Crockett of Texas, as leaders.

Republican strategists think that will be a great asset when midterm season comes.

“The national party heads become great targets,” said Brett O’Donnell, a veteran of many presidential campaigns who is consulting for the reelection campaign of Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark. 

He contends that figures such as Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., would alienate most voters.

“They make for great targets because they’re talking about things that, for the most part, aren’t the concerns of the majority of Americans,” O’Donnell said.

Todd, the Republican consultant, who argues that the Democrats suffered in 2024 because “they’ve allowed themselves to get so far out of the mainstream,” thinks that those figures will hurt Democrats in the next election cycle.

Asked about Ocasio-Cortez’s massive fundraising efforts, he replied, “if a far-left radical is the one raising the most money, and someone who’s arguing that Democrats should go even further left, that’s good for Republicans.”

Roe similarly took joy in the state of the Democratic Party.

“If there’s one Democrat left standing in the state of Michigan, I want it to be [Rep.] Rashida Tlaib,” he said. 

“I want her to be the avatar of what the Democratic Party is. We could only be so lucky if Jasmine Crockett and AOC became the avatars of the Democratic Party. I think it demonstrates a lack of seriousness on behalf of Democrats,” he added.

But Bannon, when asked whether low Democratic Party approval ratings could negate their opportunities on economic issues, replied, “The short answer is no.”

He added, “Trump broke the No. 1 cardinal rule of American politics: Never destabilize the economy. And if this situation continues, Trump’s going to pay for it. Or more importantly, Republicans in tight races are going to pay for it in the midterms next year.”

All three Republican consultants maintained, however, that if Trump can make good on popular economic promises such as extending his tax cuts and eliminating taxes on tips, he will benefit greatly when voters evaluate his performance in 2026.

“Getting the taxes on tips removed is a great goal. It’s popular with a huge majority of Americans. And so talking about those goals, reawakening American energy, and making America energy dominant—that’s enormously popular. Talking about strengthening our military, that’s enormously popular,” O’Donnell said. 

“Those are the things we want to be talking about,” he said.

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